Robustness regression.

Food security is the lifeline of national security. It is not only an important cornerstone for world peace, stability, and development, but also the core driving force for promoting the green development of agriculture. This paper utilizes the empirical data of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2022 to explore how agricultural non-point source pollution (ANSP) affects food security (FS), and also discusses the moderating effect of environmental regulations (ER). Empirical research shows that the intensification of agricultural non-point source pollution will lead to a decline in the level of food security, especially in the western areas, grain-producing areas, and grain-balanced areas. Furthermore, environmental regulations have a positive moderating effect on the impact of agricultural non-point source pollution on food security. From the perspective of the spatial spillover effect, the inhibitory effect of agricultural non-point source pollution on food security has a spillover effect in space and will radiate to the development of food security in adjacent areas. The research suggests that the local government should enhance its attention and supervision over agricultural non-point source pollution, integrate agricultural technology with environmental supervision, optimize the allocation of agricultural resources, and attach importance to the protection of the agricultural ecological environment, so as to better ensure food security and achieve green agricultural development.粮食安全是国家安全的生命线。其不仅是世界和平、稳定与发展的重要基石，亦是推动农业绿色发展的核心动力。本文采用2010-2022年中国30个省份的实证数据，探究农业面源污染（agricultural non-point source pollution, ANSP）对粮食安全（food security, FS）的影响，并探讨环境规制（environmental regulations, ER）的调节效应。实证研究表明，农业面源污染加剧会导致粮食安全水平下降，该效应在西部地区、粮食主产区与粮食平衡产区尤为突出。此外，环境规制对农业面源污染影响粮食安全的传导路径具有正向调节作用。从空间溢出效应视角出发，农业面源污染对粮食安全的抑制效应存在空间溢出性，会辐射影响邻近区域的粮食安全发展。本研究建议，地方政府应强化对农业面源污染的关注与监管，推动农业技术与环境监管深度融合，优化农业资源配置，并重视农业生态环境保护，以此更好保障粮食安全，实现农业绿色发展。