Calibration of the two prediction models.

N = 144,018 analysis cohort with complete data on all variables included in any model. The cohort is split into 10ths of the distribution of the linear predictor for each of the two prediction models. For example, for the Templeton prediction model the observed and predicted are compared by 10th of the Templeton linear predictor.aTempleton: As in reference [7], to date the only externally validated prediction model (Text S1).bNovel model: Using the same variables as Templeton but allowing them to have different multivariable coefficients to those originally derived by Templeton and including terms for all causes of infertility (rather than just tubal versus other as in the original Templeton) and four additional predictors: type of hormonal preparation, whether egg came from patient or donor, number of treatment cycles, and whether ICSI was used with the IVF (Text S2).