Time trend results.

Accelerating the formation of a green dual-circulation pattern is an essential strategic choice for China to achieve high-quality development. As a vital link for two-way economic and trade cooperation, the pilot free trade zone (PFTZ) is an important window for promoting green dual-circulation development. From the perspective of green dual-circulation, this paper attempts to construct a comprehensive index system of green dual-circulation by entropy weight method based on Chinese provincial panel data from 2007 to 2020 and uses the Propensity Score Matching–Difference in Differences method to test the policy impact of PFTZ building on regional green dual-circulation. The empirical results show that: (1) the establishment of PFTZs significantly promotes regional green dual-circulation development by 3%-4%. This policy effect has a strong positive impact on the eastern regions; (2) PFTZs can improve regional green dual circulation through the effect of green finance, technological progress, and the agglomeration of innovative talents. The mediating effect of green finance and technological progress is more pronounced; (3) The promotion effect of PFTZs is primarily due to the local green circulation effect, with no significant effects on the surrounding areas; and (4) There is a positive policy linkage effect between PFTZs and the Belt and Road Initiative. This study creates the analytical perspective and empirical support for assessing the policy impact of PFTZs and provides management insights for PFTZ policymakers in promoting green dual-circulation development.加快构建绿色双循环（green dual-circulation）新发展格局，是中国实现高质量发展的核心战略抉择。作为双向经贸合作的关键纽带，自由贸易试验区（PFTZ）是推动绿色双循环发展的重要窗口。本文从绿色双循环视角出发，基于2007至2020年中国省级面板数据，采用熵权法构建绿色双循环综合指标体系，并运用倾向得分匹配-双重差分法（Propensity Score Matching-Difference in Differences，PSM-DID）检验自由贸易试验区建设对区域绿色双循环的政策效应。实证结果表明：其一，自由贸易试验区的设立可显著推动区域绿色双循环发展，提升幅度达3%至4%，该政策效应对东部地区具有显著正向影响；其二，自由贸易试验区可通过绿色金融、技术进步与创新人才集聚效应提升区域绿色双循环水平，其中绿色金融与技术进步的中介效应更为显著；其三，自由贸易试验区的促进效应主要源于本地绿色循环效应，对周边地区未产生显著影响；其四，自由贸易试验区与“一带一路”倡议之间存在正向政策联动效应。本研究为评估自由贸易试验区的政策效应提供了分析视角与实证支撑，同时可为自由贸易试验区政策制定者推动绿色双循环发展提供管理启示。