A matter of time, not generations: rising emotional attachment to the European Union 1991–2023. An age period cohort analysis

The literature argues that successive generations have become progressively more attached to the EU, due to having experienced increasing levels of integration during their impressionable adolescent years. This generational view of EU attachment assumes that after birth cohorts have outgrown their impressionable years, they do not become more attached to the EU, regardless of period-based changes. However, newer theories of European integration emphasise period-based influences that shape EU attachment across all age cohorts, rather than solely impacting adolescents during their formative years. We use an age period cohort model with repeated cross-sectional Eurobarometer data from 1991 to 2023, showing that all EU-citizens have on average become more attached to the EU over time, rather than later-born birth cohorts being more attached to the EU based on their generational membership. Contrary to what the literature assumes, this indicates that no ‘generations of Europeans’ exist, but that EU-attachment increases for all cohorts over time. Contrary to long-standing assumptions in the literature, this indicates that efforts to increase emotional attachment to the EU can proceed faster than generational change occurs.现有研究认为，各代群体对欧盟的认同感逐步增强，这缘于他们在心智易受影响的青少年时期，亲历了欧盟一体化程度的不断提升。这种关于欧盟认同感的代际视角假设：一旦出生队列度过其心智易受影响的阶段，无论时期层面发生何种变化，他们对欧盟的认同感都不会再增强。然而，新兴的欧洲一体化理论则强调，时期层面的影响会塑造所有年龄队列的欧盟认同感，而非仅作用于处于成长关键期的青少年。本研究采用1991年至2023年的重复横截面欧洲晴雨表（Eurobarometer）数据，结合年龄-时期-队列模型展开分析，结果显示：所有欧盟公民的欧盟认同感随时间推移平均呈增强趋势，而非仅晚出生队列凭借其代际身份拥有更强的欧盟认同感。与现有研究的假设相悖，这一结果表明不存在“欧洲人世代”，所有队列的欧盟认同感均随时间不断提升。同时，这一结果也与学界长期以来的假设相悖：提升公众对欧盟情感认同感的工作，其推进速度可以快于代际更替的速度。