Second-Order Policy Effects as State Transitions: A Source-Linked Benchmark for Policy Simulation

This reproducibility artifact accompanies the paper Second-Order Policy Effects as State Transitions: A Source-Linked Benchmark for Policy Simulation. It contains the 96-case source-linked public-policy benchmark across eight domains, source locators and source-authority audits, executable benchmark runner and validator scripts, generated method and action scores, naive-baseline results, scoring-sensitivity analyses, leave-domain-out summaries, source-linked transition-channel audits, selective-channel stress tests, second-coder reliability outputs, verification metadata, and SHA256 manifests. The artifact supports reproduction and audit of the manuscript’s reported results on second-order policy-effect prediction, including capture, gaming, burden shift, instability, uncertainty, irreversibility, distributional risk, and implementation capacity. The benchmark is designed to evaluate whether explicit transition-state representations improve detection of downstream institutional effects while controlling for target leakage, action-class imbalance, source opacity, and overinclusive channel coverage.