Granger causality Wald tests.

This paper aims to investigate trade openness’s effects on total factor productivity (TFP) using monthly data from December 1991 to March 2024. The analysis also incorporated absorptive capacity to examine the behavior of TFP components. Our findings from a multivariate VECM model indicated that absorptive capacity did not significantly impact TFP, even in the short term. Conversely, the increase in openness contributes to raising TFP by about 26 and 0.16 percentage points in the short and long term, respectively. Additionally, absorptive capacity and trade openness Granger-Cause short- and long-term components of TFP. These results are statistically significant at conventional significance levels. Policymakers should consider the dynamic effects of their policy actions on other sectors of the economy that were not initially the focus of the policy. Policymakers should develop concrete policies that improve the efficient use of resources in production chains to potentialize the productive impact of trade liberalization, including investment in human capital, ICT, and research and development.本研究旨在利用1991年12月至2024年3月的月度数据，考察贸易开放度对全要素生产率（Total Factor Productivity，TFP）的影响。本分析同时纳入吸收能力指标，以探究全要素生产率各组成部分的变动规律。基于多元向量误差修正模型（VECM）的实证结果显示，吸收能力对全要素生产率未产生显著影响，即便在短期维度下亦是如此。与之相对，贸易开放度的提升分别在短期与长期内可推动全要素生产率增长约26个和0.16个百分点。此外，吸收能力与贸易开放度均为全要素生产率短期与长期组成部分的格兰杰原因。上述结果在常规显著性水平下均具备统计学显著性。政策制定者需考量其政策举措对经济中未被纳入初始政策关注范畴的其他部门所产生的动态影响。政策制定者应制定具体政策，提升生产链内的资源高效利用水平，以强化贸易自由化的生产效应，其中包括对人力资本、信息与通信技术（Information and Communication Technology，ICT）以及研发的投入。