Modelling wolf Canis lupus _Biscan et al. 2025

A century ago, wolves were present across Croatia but were eradicated from Slavonia, which could serve as a vital corridor linking Carpathian and Dinaric-Balkan wolf populations, ensuring genetic exchange and ecosystem stability. Recent wolf sightings in Slavonia suggest that natural recolonisation is possible. Understanding this process under different management scenarios is a key to minimizing conflicts and aiding recolonisation. This study modeled wolf population dynamics in Slavonia and neighboring areas using 11 scenarios, categorized into three groups: adverse events, increased carrying capacity, and population supplementation. The scenarios included different management options, one baseline, and others addressing system uncertainties. Results showed that the corridor construction and wolf translocation scenario have the lowest extinction probability. Conversely, adverse events presented high extinction risks, and increasing suitable areas alone is insufficient. These findings highlight the need for integrated conservation strategies, combining corridors, population management, and conflict mitigation. Long-term planning is critical, as outcomes diverge more significantly over time. Connectivity with stable neighboring populations is essential for the wolves’ long-term survival. Future research should explore if protected areas alone can support wolves’ roles as apex predators, and whether large-scale ecosystem restoration, including trophic rewilding, is necessary for successful recolonization.