FUME projection data

# FUME data Population data and migration flows from FUME projections. ## Update 0.3.0 - Corrected error in No Migration scenario data - Added IGC (Intensifying Global Competition) scenario - Updated scenario names ## Update 0.2.0 Updated input rates ## Introduction International projection model with dimensions Age, Sex, Education and Country of Birth. Projected from 2015 to 2050, four different scenarios; Benchmark, Ukraine War, Recovery in Europe and Rise of the East. Additional scenario with no migration also included. Benchmark scenario: Identical to SSP2 from Koch &amp; Leimbach (2022), including COVID<br> shock but not Ukraine war. Ukraine War (previously called Short-War) scenario: Same as the benchmark scenario but we use the latest IMF GDP estimates till the year 2027 which include the Ukraine war. Afterwards, a linear transition over 1 years back to SSP2 growth rates is implemented. Exception: Ukraine is estimated to have a 35% decrease in GDP in 2022 and the IMF does not provide estimates for the following year. Using a linear transition to SSP2 growth rates till 2028 would reduce Ukraines GDP very<br> drastically. Instead we assume that in 2023 Ukraine has another 17.5% GDP decrease and in 2024 the growth is zero. Afterwards (2025 and ongoing), we estimate Ukraine to again follow the SSP2 growth rates. Recovery in Europe (Scenario B): The same as the Ukraine War scenario till 2027 but afterwards European countries will transition towards the SSP with highest growth rates and developing countries will transition towards the SSP with lowest growth rates. All other countries will transition towards SSP2. Rise of the East (Scenario C): The same as the Ukraine War scenario till 2027 but afterwards developing countries will transition towards the SSP with highest growth rates and European countries will transition towards the SSP with lowest growth rates. All other countries will transition towards SSP2. IGC (Intensifying Global Competition): The same as the Ukraine War scenario till 2027 but afterwards every country with a projected GDPc less than 15000$ in 2040 will linearly transition to 15000$ in 2040 and afterwards keep on growing with SSP2 growth rates. All countries with a GDPc higher than 15000$ will behave the same as in the short-war scenario. This “catch-up” behaviour of poorer countries is inspired by the “CAP” and “FAIR” GDP scenarios in Bodirsky et al., 2022. No Migration: Same as Benchmark scenario but with no international migration. ## Variables ### Population data period: Start year of projection step dest: Country of residency / Migration destination country CoB: Country of Birth area: ISO3 numeric country code of destination age: Age, five year groups, 0 - 100+ edu: Education, 6 levels, (e1 = No Education, e2 = Some Primary, e3 = Primary, e4 = Lower Secondary, e5 = Upper<br> Secondary, e6 = Post Secondary) sex: Sex, two categories pop: Population <br> ### Migration rate data specific variable names POB: Place Of Birth (Country of Birth) Orig: Country of origin Dest: Country of destination flow: Migration rate Skill: Skill categories, (Low (Secondary and Less) and High (Post secondary+)) age: Age groups (1 (0-24), 2 (25-64), 3 (65+)) flowM: Male specific migration rate flowF: Female specific migration rate ## Countries Countries currently included in the model are in total 171 (given in ISO3 country codes): ```<br> "AFG" "AUT" "BEL" "BGR" "CYP" "CZE" "DEU" "DNK" "ESP" "EST" "FIN" "FRA" "GBR"<br> "GRC" "HRV" "HUN" "IRL" "ITA" "LTU" "LUX" "LVA" "MLT" "NLD" "POL" "PRT" "ROU"<br> "SVK" "SVN" "SWE" "AGO" "ALB" "ARE" "ARG" "ARM" "AUS" "AZE" "BDI" "BEN" "BFA"<br> "BGD" "BHR" "BHS" "BIH" "BLR" "BLZ" "BOL" "BRA" "BTN" "BWA" "CAF" "CAN" "CHE"<br> "CHL" "CHN" "CIV" "CMR" "COD" "COG" "COL" "COM" "CPV" "CRI" "CUB" "DOM" "DZA"<br> "ECU" "EGY" "ETH" "FJI" "GAB" "GEO" "GHA" "GIN" "GMB" "GNB" "GNQ" "GTM" "GUY"<br> "HKG" "HND" "HTI" "IDN" "IND" "IRN" "IRQ" "ISL" "ISR" "JAM" "JOR" "JPN" "KAZ"<br> "KEN" "KGZ" "KHM" "KOR" "KWT" "LAO" "LBN" "LBR" "LCA" "LKA" "LSO" "MAC" "MAR"<br> "MDA" "MDG" "MDV" "MEX" "MKD" "MLI" "MMR" "MNE" "MNG" "MOZ" "MUS" "MWI" "MYS"<br> "NAM" "NER" "NGA" "NIC" "NOR" "NPL" "NZL" "OMN" "PAK" "PAN" "PER" "PHL" "PRI"<br> "PRY" "PSE" "QAT" "RUS" "RWA" "SAU" "SDN" "SEN" "SGP" "SLB" "SLE" "SLV" "SOM"<br> "SRB" "STP" "SUR" "SWZ" "SYR" "TCD" "TGO" "THA" "TJK" "TKM" "TLS" "TTO" "TUN"<br> "TUR" "TZA" "UGA" "UKR" "URY" "USA" "VCT" "VEN" "VNM" "VUT" "WSM" "YEM" "ZAF"<br> "ZMB" "ZWE"<br> ```# FUME数据集：源自FUME预测的人口数据与迁移流 ## 更新日志 ### Update 0.3.0 修正了无迁移情景下的数据错误；新增IGC（Intensifying Global Competition，全球竞争加剧）情景；更新了情景命名规则。 ### Update 0.2.0 更新了输入参数。 ## 简介 本模型为涵盖年龄、性别、教育程度与出生国家维度的国际人口预测模型，预测时段为2015年至2050年，共设置四类基准情景：基准情景、乌克兰战争情景、欧洲复苏情景与东方崛起情景，同时额外增设无国际迁移情景。 ### 各情景详细说明 1. **基准情景**：与Koch与Leimbach（2022）提出的SSP2（共享社会经济路径2）完全一致，包含新冠疫情（COVID）冲击，但未纳入乌克兰战争影响。 2. **乌克兰战争情景**（原名为“短期战争”情景）：与基准情景保持一致，但采用截至2027年的最新国际货币基金组织（IMF）GDP预估数据，该数据已包含乌克兰战争的影响。2027年后，将通过1年的线性过渡阶段回归SSP2增长率。特殊调整说明：乌克兰2022年GDP预计下降35%，且IMF未提供后续年度的预估数据。若直接采用线性过渡至2028年的SSP2增长率方案，将导致乌克兰GDP出现大幅跳水。因此本研究设定：2023年乌克兰GDP再下降17.5%，2024年GDP增长率为0；2025年及以后，乌克兰将恢复遵循SSP2增长率路径。 3. **欧洲复苏情景（情景B）**：2027年前与乌克兰战争情景完全一致，此后欧洲国家将向高增长率共享社会经济路径（SSP）过渡，发展中国家将向低增长率SSP过渡，其余国家将过渡至SSP2路径。 4. **东方崛起情景（情景C）**：2027年前与乌克兰战争情景完全一致，此后发展中国家将向高增长率SSP过渡，欧洲国家将向低增长率SSP过渡，其余国家将过渡至SSP2路径。 5. **IGC（Intensifying Global Competition，全球竞争加剧）情景**：2027年前与乌克兰战争情景完全一致，此后所有预计2040年人均GDP（GDP per capita, GDPc）低于15000美元的国家将线性过渡至2040年的15000美元水平，之后以SSP2增长率持续增长；人均GDP高于15000美元的国家将与“短期战争”情景下的表现一致。该欠发达国家“追赶式增长”的设计思路借鉴了Bodirsky等人（2022）提出的CAP与FAIR GDP情景。 6. **无迁移情景**：与基准情景保持一致，但剔除所有国际迁移环节。 ## 变量说明 ### 人口数据变量 - period：预测步的起始年份 - dest：居住国/移民目的地国 - CoB：出生国（Country of Birth） - area：目的地国的ISO3数值国别代码 - age：年龄组，以5年为一档，覆盖0至100+岁 - edu：教育程度，共6个等级：e1=无学历，e2=初等教育阶段在读，e3=初等教育毕业，e4=初级中等教育，e5=高级中等教育，e6=中等后教育 - sex：性别，分为2个类别 - pop：人口数量 ### 迁移率数据专属变量 - POB：出生地（Place Of Birth，即出生国） - Orig：移民来源国 - Dest：移民目的地国 - flow：迁移率 - Skill：技能类别，分为低技能（中等教育及以下）与高技能（中等后教育及以上） - age：年龄组：1（0-24岁）、2（25-64岁）、3（65岁及以上） - flowM：男性专属迁移率 - flowF：女性专属迁移率 ## 覆盖国家 本模型当前共纳入171个采用ISO3国别代码标识的国家，具体列表如下： "AFG" "AUT" "BEL" "BGR" "CYP" "CZE" "DEU" "DNK" "ESP" "EST" "FIN" "FRA" "GBR" "GRC" "HRV" "HUN" "IRL" "ITA" "LTU" "LUX" "LVA" "MLT" "NLD" "POL" "PRT" "ROU" "SVK" "SVN" "SWE" "AGO" "ALB" "ARE" "ARG" "ARM" "AUS" "AZE" "BDI" "BEN" "BFA" "BGD" "BHR" "BHS" "BIH" "BLR" "BLZ" "BOL" "BRA" "BTN" "BWA" "CAF" "CAN" "CHE" "CHL" "CHN" "CIV" "CMR" "COD" "COG" "COL" "COM" "CPV" "CRI" "CUB" "DOM" "DZA" "ECU" "EGY" "ETH" "FJI" "GAB" "GEO" "GHA" "GIN" "GMB" "GNB" "GNQ" "GTM" "GUY" "HKG" "HND" "HTI" "IDN" "IND" "IRN" "IRQ" "ISL" "ISR" "JAM" "JOR" "JPN" "KAZ" "KEN" "KGZ" "KHM" "KOR" "KWT" "LAO" "LBN" "LBR" "LCA" "LKA" "LSO" "MAC" "MAR" "MDA" "MDG" "MDV" "MEX" "MKD" "MLI" "MMR" "MNE" "MNG" "MOZ" "MUS" "MWI" "MYS" "NAM" "NER" "NGA" "NIC" "NOR" "NPL" "NZL" "OMN" "PAK" "PAN" "PER" "PHL" "PRI" "PRY" "PSE" "QAT" "RUS" "RWA" "SAU" "SDN" "SEN" "SGP" "SLB" "SLE" "SLV" "SOM" "SRB" "STP" "SUR" "SWZ" "SYR" "TCD" "TGO" "THA" "TJK" "TKM" "TLS" "TTO" "TUN" "TUR" "TZA" "UGA" "UKR" "URY" "USA" "VCT" "VEN" "VNM" "VUT" "WSM" "YEM" "ZAF" "ZMB" "ZWE"