Impact of hydroclimatic changes on water security in the Cantareira Water Production System, Brazil

The Cantareira Water Producer System (CWPS), which supplies water to the most populous Brazilian region, Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP), faces significant challenges due to cli-mate change, threatening its water security. Climate change affects the hydrological cycle affecting water availability. The CWPS is vulnerable to periods of scarcity and instability due to increased climatic variability and increasing water consumption. Current water resource management systems do not consider the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to ensure water security in the future. This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the availability of CWPS using hydrological modeling approach with forecast precipitation data by CMIP6 and assessment of existing systems. The finds will provide a comprehensive understanding of the challenges faced by CWPS in the context of climate change, as well as support strategies and adaptive measures to ensure water security for MRSP.

坎塔雷拉供水系统（Cantareira Water Producer System, CWPS）为巴西人口最密集的区域——圣保罗都会区（Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, MRSP）提供供水服务，当前正面临气候变化带来的严峻挑战，其水安全受到严重威胁。气候变化会影响水文循环，进而干扰水资源可利用量。由于气候变异性加剧与用水量持续攀升，该供水系统极易陷入水资源短缺与运行不稳定的周期。当前的水资源管理体系未纳入气候变化的影响维度，导致未来难以保障水安全。本研究采用水文建模方法，结合CMIP6的降水预报数据，并对现有系统开展评估，分析气候变化对坎塔雷拉供水系统水资源可利用量的影响。本研究的成果将全面阐明气候变化背景下坎塔雷拉供水系统面临的各项挑战，并为保障圣保罗都会区的水安全提供战略制定依据与适应性措施支撑。