Replication Data for: 'Who Gets What: The Economy, Relative Gains, and Brexit' British Journal of Political Science

A debate exists about the economic and cultural-based drivers of support for populism. In this paper, we argue that economic concerns matter, but they are realised through the relative gains and losses of social groups. Using new survey items in a large representative survey in Britain, we show that citizens’ economic assessments of the ethnic minority out-group - in relation to the group’s 12 months ago and to assessments of the economic conditions of the white British in-group - are a predictor of support for Brexit. Results, which are robust to prior referendum vote, immigration attitudes, and cultural sentiment, extend across income groups and national identity strength. Extending the analysis to a comparison of geographic in- and out-groups between local communities and London lends additional support to our argument. The implications of relative group-based economics are important for understanding Brexit and the economic sources of support for populism more broadly.

学界围绕民粹主义支持率的经济与文化驱动因素存在广泛争议。本文提出，经济担忧确实会对民众态度产生影响，但该影响需通过社会群体的相对损益得以体现。本文依托英国一项大型代表性调查中的新增问卷题项，研究显示：民众对少数族裔外群体的经济评价（相较该群体12个月前的经济状况，以及对本土白人内群体的经济状况评价）可作为脱欧（Brexit）支持率的预测因子。该研究结果在控制此前公投投票情况、移民态度与文化倾向后依然稳健，且适用于不同收入群体与不同民族认同强度的受访者。将分析拓展至地方社区与伦敦之间的地理内群体与外群体对比，进一步佐证了本文的核心论点。基于群体相对经济状况的研究结论，对于理解脱欧事件，以及更广泛范围内民粹主义支持率的经济根源均具有重要学术意义。