Heterogeneity analysis using predicted WTP.

Sorghum is one of the critical food security crops, particularly in moisture-stressed areas of Ethiopia. However, in the absence of a well-organized formal seed system, public research institutions have continued to promote and disseminate improved sorghum varieties to encourage adoption. On the other hand, the lack of evidence on smallholder farmers’ demand for improved varieties has discouraged the seed industry from investing in marginalized crops, like sorghum, in contrast to more commercialized crops such as wheat and maize. This study assessed producers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for improved sorghum varieties suitable for moisture-stressed sorghum growing agro-ecologies. Data were collected from 659 households selected using probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling techniques. Descriptive statistics, heterogeneity analysis and generalized ordered probit econometric model were employed for data analysis. Farmers’ WTP was, on average, 59% higher than the market price set by the government. In the Amhara and Oromia regions, WTP was 67% and 47% above the official price, respectively. WTP varied significantly by age, farm size, income source, and gender. The inelastic nature of WTP and the observed gender gap—where only 40% of female-headed households exhibited WTP at the market price compared to 60% of male-headed households—highlight the need for gender-responsive, non-price interventions such as targeted subsidies, smaller input packages, and inclusive extension services to promote equitable access and uptake of improved sorghum varieties.高粱（Sorghum）是保障粮食安全的关键作物之一，在埃塞俄比亚的水分胁迫区域尤为重要。然而，由于缺乏完善的正规种子体系，公共研究机构仍在持续推广并传播改良高粱品种，以提升农户的种植采用率。另一方面，与小麦、玉米等商业化程度更高的作物不同，目前尚无关于小农对改良高粱品种需求的相关实证证据，这使得种业不愿在高粱这类弱势作物上投入资金。本研究针对适配水分胁迫种植生态的改良高粱品种，评估了种植者的支付意愿（Willingness to Pay, WTP）。研究采用规模加权概率抽样（Probability Proportional to Size, PPS）技术选取了659户农户进行数据采集。数据分析环节运用了描述性统计、异质性分析以及广义有序Probit计量模型。结果显示，农户的平均支付意愿较政府制定的市场价格高出59%；在阿姆哈拉州与奥罗米亚州，农户的支付意愿分别较官方定价高出67%与47%。支付意愿会随农户年龄、耕地规模、收入来源以及性别呈现显著差异。研究发现，支付意愿缺乏弹性，且存在明显的性别差距：仅40%的女性当家农户愿意按市场价格支付，而男性当家农户的这一比例为60%。这两点凸显了开展性别响应型非价格干预措施的必要性，例如定向补贴、小型农资套餐以及包容性农业推广服务，以推动改良高粱品种的公平获取与种植推广。