Model to Track Wild Birds for Avian Influenza by Means of Population Dynamics and Surveillance Information

Design, sampling and data interpretation constitute an important challenge for wildlife surveillance of avian influenza viruses (AIV). The aim of this study was to construct a model to improve and enhance identification in both different periods and locations of avian species likely at high risk of contact with AIV in a specific wetland. This study presents an individual-based stochastic model for the Ebre Delta as an example of this appliance. Based on the Monte-Carlo method, the model simulates the dynamics of the spread of AIV among wild birds in a natural park following introduction of an infected bird. Data on wild bird species population, apparent AIV prevalence recorded in wild birds during the period of study, and ecological information on factors such as behaviour, contact rates or patterns of movements of waterfowl were incorporated as inputs of the model. From these inputs, the model predicted those species that would introduce most of AIV in different periods and those species and areas that would be at high risk as a consequence of the spread of these AIV incursions. This method can serve as a complementary tool to previous studies to optimize the allocation of the limited AI surveillance resources in a local complex ecosystem. However, this study indicates that in order to predict the evolution of the spread of AIV at the local scale, there is a need for further research on the identification of host factors involved in the interspecies transmission of AIV.禽流感病毒（avian influenza viruses, AIV）的野生动物监测工作，其方案设计、采样实施与数据解读均是一项重大挑战。本研究旨在构建一款模型，以优化并强化对特定湿地内、不同时期与区域中高风险接触禽流感病毒的鸟类物种的识别能力。本研究以埃布罗三角洲（Ebre Delta）为例，构建了基于个体的随机模型以展示该方法的应用。本模型基于蒙特卡洛方法（Monte-Carlo method），模拟了自然公园内野生鸟类在引入感染个体后，禽流感病毒在种群间的传播动态。模型输入项涵盖野生鸟类物种种群数据、研究期间记录的野生鸟类禽流感病毒表观感染率，以及水禽（waterfowl）的行为、接触频率、迁徙模式等相关生态学信息。基于上述输入数据，模型可预测出不同时期内最易引入禽流感病毒的鸟类物种，以及因病毒入侵传播而面临高风险的物种与区域。该方法可作为现有研究的补充工具，用于优化复杂本地生态系统中有限的禽流感监测资源配置。不过，本研究同时指出，若要在局地尺度上精准预测禽流感病毒的传播演化趋势，仍需进一步开展相关研究，以明确参与病毒跨物种传播的宿主相关影响因素。