Impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of the traditional chinese medicinal plant <i>Spatholobus suberectus</i> in China: an analysis using a selected ensemble model

<i>Spatholobus suberectus</i>, a valuable Chinese medicinal plant, faces habitat shifts under climate change. In order to better utilize the medicinal properties of <i>S. suberectus</i> and conduct further investigations, this study utilized the Biomod2 ensemble model to predict and analyze the potential expansion and contraction of suitable habitat areas for <i>S. suberectus</i> in China under changing climatic and environmental conditions. The results showed that, compared to the pre-screened models, the ensemble model significantly improved the prediction accuracy. Currently, <i>S. suberectus</i> is concentrated in southern China, its suitable habitat is projected to contract overall, peaking at 143.91 × 10³ km² by the 2070s, with losses focused in southern regions. The five most influential environmental factors were found to be: the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio06), the annual mean temperature (bio01), seasonal variation in temperature (bio04), and the precipitation of the driest season (bio17). As various climatic factors change, the centroid of high suitability for <i>S. suberectus</i> is predicted to shift first towards the northeast and then towards the northwest. Future utilization strategies must prioritize climate change monitoring and habitat conservation to mitigate ecological impacts and ensure sustainable use.密花豆（*Spatholobus suberectus*）是一种极具价值的中国药用植物，在气候变化背景下正经历生境变迁。为更好地开发利用其药用价值并开展深入研究，本研究借助Biomod2集成模型，对气候变化与环境变化情景下中国境内密花豆适宜生境的潜在扩张与收缩情况进行预测分析。结果显示，相较于初筛模型，集成模型的预测精度得到了显著提升。当前密花豆主要集中分布于中国南方地区，其适宜生境整体呈缩减趋势，预计到21世纪70年代将达到143.91×10³平方千米的峰值，生境流失主要集中在南部区域。研究发现影响其分布的五大关键环境因子依次为：最冷季平均气温（bio11）、最冷月最低气温（bio06）、年平均气温（bio01）、气温季节变率（bio04）以及最干季降水量（bio17）。随着各类气候因子的变化，密花豆高适宜生境的质心预计将先向东北方向迁移，随后转向西北方向。未来的开发利用策略需优先开展气候变化监测与生境保护工作，以减缓生态影响并保障其可持续利用。