Replication data for: A Statistical Model of Multiparty Electoral Data

We propose a comprehensive statistical model for analyzing multiparty, district-level elections. This model, which provides a tool for comparative politics research analagous to that which regression analysis provides in the American two-party context, can be used to explain or predict how geographic distributions of electoral results depend upon economic conditions, neighborhood ethnic compositions, campaign spending, and other features of the election campaign or aggregate areas. We also provide new graphical representations for data exploration, model evaluation, and substantive interpretation. We illustrate the use of this model by attempting to resolve a controversy over the size of and trend in electoral advantage of incumbency in Britain. Contrary to previous analyses, all based on measures now known to be biased, we demonstrate that the advantage is small but meaningful, varies substantially across the parties, and is not growing. Finally, we show how to estimate the party from which each party's advantage is predominantly drawn. Related work includes \"A Fast, Easy, and Efficient Estimator for Multiparty Electoral Data,\" which generalizes this paper's ideas. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML) See also: Incumbency Advantage; Missing Data

本研究提出一种用于分析多党竞争选区选举的综合统计模型。该模型为比较政治学研究提供的工具作用，类比于美国两党制语境下回归分析所承担的角色，可用于解释或预测选举结果的地理分布如何受经济状况、社区族裔构成、竞选开支以及选举活动或聚合区域的其他特征影响。本研究同时提供了适用于数据探索、模型评估与实质性阐释的新型可视化呈现方式。我们以英国连任选举优势（Incumbency Advantage）的规模与趋势争议为例，演示该模型的应用方法。与此前所有基于现已证实存在偏误的测度方法的研究结论相反，本研究表明该优势规模较小但具备实际意义，且在不同政党间存在显著差异，同时并未呈现扩大趋势。最后，本研究阐释了如何测算某一政党的选举优势主要源自哪些其他政党。相关研究包括《面向多党选举数据的快速简便高效估计器》（A Fast, Easy, and Efficient Estimator for Multiparty Electoral Data），该研究拓展了本文的核心思路。(Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML) 另见：连任选举优势（Incumbency Advantage）；缺失数据（Missing Data）