Evaluating how lethal management affects poaching of Mexican wolves

Despite illegal killing (poaching) being the major cause of death among large carnivores globally, little is known about the effect of implementing lethal management policies on poaching. Two opposing hypotheses have been proposed in the literature: implementing lethal management may decrease poaching incidence (‘killing for tolerance’) or increase it (‘facilitated killing’). Here, we propose a test of two opposed hypotheses that poaching (reported and unreported) of Mexican grey wolves (Canis lupus baileyi) in Arizona and New Mexico, USA, responded to changes in policy that relaxed protections to allow more wolf-killing. We employ advanced biostatistical survival and competing-risk methods to data on individual resightings, mortality, and disappearances of collared Mexican wolves. We aim to provide recommendations for improving the effectiveness of US policy on environmental crimes, endangered species, and protections for wild animals. Our results have implications beyond the USA or wo...

尽管非法猎杀（盗猎）是全球大型食肉动物死亡的主要诱因，但学界对实施致死性管理政策对盗猎活动的影响仍知之甚少。现有文献已提出两种对立假说：实施致死性管理或可降低盗猎发生率（即"以猎杀换取容忍"），或可提升盗猎规模（即"助长盗猎"）。本研究针对美国亚利桑那州与新墨西哥州境内的墨西哥灰狼（Canis lupus baileyi），对两项对立假说展开验证：该区域的盗猎（含上报与未上报盗猎）是否会因保护政策放宽、允许更多灰狼猎杀行为的政策变动而发生变化。本研究采用先进的生物统计生存分析与竞争风险分析方法，对佩戴追踪项圈的墨西哥灰狼的个体重捕、死亡及失踪数据进行分析。本研究旨在为提升美国在环境犯罪、濒危物种保护及野生动物保护相关政策的有效性提供决策建议。本研究的结论不仅适用于美国，其借鉴意义亦可延伸至（原文此处未完整）。