Model fit for acute episodes assessed by weighted sums of squares.

We calculated the squared difference between the trial estimate and the predicted protective efficacy, weighted them by the number of person years at risk/100 and summed them to give a measure of the goodness-of-fit. A smaller value indicates a better fit. The three trials with EIR measurements were formally used to test the models, the remaining three were used only to validate the model output against general patterns in the trial results.我们计算了试验估计值与预测保护效力之间的平方差，以风险人年数除以100为权重对各平方差进行加权求和，以此得到拟合优度的量化指标。数值越小，代表模型拟合效果越好。含EIR（Entomological Inoculation Rate）测量数据的三项试验被正式用于模型测试，剩余三项试验则仅用于对照试验结果的通用模式以验证模型输出结果。