SNAPP - Mapping the Global Potential for Marine Aquaculture

Marine aquaculture presents an opportunity for increasing seafood production in the face of both growing demand for marine protein and limited scope for expanding harvest of wild fisheries. Unknown, however, is the global capacity for increased aquaculture production from the ocean or the relative productivity potential across countries. Here, we use an innovative approach to calculate and map potential marine aquaculture production, drawing from physiology, allometry, and growth theory. Even after applying substantial constraints based on existing ocean uses, we find vast areas in nearly every coastal country that are suitable for aquaculture. Development potential far exceeds the space required to meet foreseeable seafood demand; indeed, current total landings of all wild capture fisheries could be produced using less than 0.015% of global ocean area. This analysis demonstrates that suitable space is unlikely to limit marine aquaculture development, and that considerable flexibility exists to site farms in a way that aligns with economic, environmental, and social objectives. In an era shaped by a growing population and environmental uncertainty, sustainable marine aquaculture has widespread potential to enhance global food supplies.

面对海洋蛋白需求持续攀升、野生渔业捕捞扩张空间受限的双重困境，海水养殖为提升海产品供给创造了契机。然而，当前学界仍未明确海洋可新增的海水养殖全球产能，以及各国间的相对生产潜力差异。本研究依托生理学、异速生长（allometry）理论与生长理论，采用创新方法核算并绘制了潜在海水养殖产能的空间分布格局。即便在纳入基于现有海洋利用活动制定的严格约束条件后，我们仍发现几乎所有沿海国家均分布有大面积适宜开展海水养殖的海域。其开发潜力远超满足可预见海产品需求所需的海域规模；事实上，仅需占用全球海洋面积不足0.015%的海域，即可生产出当前全球所有野生捕捞渔业的总上岸量。本分析表明，适宜养殖的海域规模不太可能成为制约海水养殖发展的瓶颈，且养殖场地的选址具备极强灵活性，可兼顾经济、环境与社会多重目标。在人口持续增长、环境不确定性加剧的时代背景下，可持续海水养殖对提升全球粮食供给具有广阔的应用前景。