Replication Data for: China’s pursuit of international status through negotiated deference: an empirical analysis of Italy’s parliamentary attitude

Italy’s controversial decision to sign a Memorandum of Understanding for collaboration on the Belt and Road Initiative with China in 2019 has been widely debated. This article seeks to break new ground by offering a theory-informed contribution investigating the rationale behind Beijing’s own commitment in the negotiations leading to the signing of the BRI MoU. It argues that the Chinese government accepted the risks involved in the process for the sake of promoting an accelerated advancement in China’s positioning in the international status hierarchy through a negotiation of deference against agency with Italy. The article empirically probes the extent to which such strategy of status enhancement on China’s part is sustainable over time. Based on a content analysis of all China-related political stances expressed in ordinary non-legislative policy-setting acts tabled in both Houses of the 18th Italian Parliament, from March 2018 through to August 2021, the article suggests that China’s strategy is hardly sustainable. In fact, the steady deterioration of China-related sentiment among Italian Members of Parliament as a consequence of Beijing’s policies towards Hong Kong, the Covid-19 outbreak, and Xinjiang matches the expectations of previous scholarship on international status as it confirms that social closure mechanisms discussed in the literature prevail over foreign policy consistency when the status-seeking actor is perceived as crossing critical normative thresholds.

意大利2019年与中国签署《一带一路倡议（Belt and Road Initiative, BRI）》合作谅解备忘录（Memorandum of Understanding, MoU）的争议性决定，长期以来广受热议。本文旨在突破既有研究藩篱，以理论为依托，探究北京方面在签署BRI MoU的谈判中作出承诺的深层动因。本文主张，中国政府甘愿承担该进程中的各类风险，旨在通过与意大利就顺从与自主性展开博弈，加速提升中国在国际地位层级中的定位。本文通过实证研究，探究中国的这一地位提升战略能否长期持续。本文基于2018年3月至2021年8月间，意大利第18届议会参众两院提交的所有非立法性政策制定文件中涉及中国的政治立场内容分析，得出中国的战略难以为继的结论。事实上，由于北京方面在香港事务、新冠疫情及新疆议题上的政策，意大利议员对华观感持续恶化。这一结果契合此前国际地位研究的预期：当寻求地位提升的行为体被认为逾越了关键的规范阈值时，文献中讨论的社会封闭机制，将优于外交政策的连贯性考量。