U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Market Countries: Responses to Cost-Push and Natural Rate Shocks

The spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy on emerging markets can vary depending on the specific shock. Using a new Keynesian small open economy model, we find that under cost-push shocks, the exchange rate depreciates (USD weakens), whereas, under natural rate shocks, it appreciates (USD strengthens). These differences are amplified through domestic bonds (finance channel) and terms of trade (trade channel). Empirical Bayesian local projection results confirm the importance of the exchange-rate channel, with strong evidence supporting finance and weaker evidence for trade channels, likely due to emerging economies’ financial vulnerabilities. We also find that different structural drivers behind natural rate shocks affect the spillover.