Projected Landscape Impacts from Oil and Gas Development Scenarios in the Permian Basin, USA

Projecting landscape impacts from energy development is essential to land management decisions. We forecast landscape alteration resulting from oil and gas well pad construction across the economically important Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, USA by projecting current landscape trends through 2050. We modeled three landscape impact scenarios (low, medium, and high) using recent (2008 to 2017) trends in well pad construction and energy production. Results of low, medium, and high impact scenarios suggest ~60,000, ~180,000, and ~430,000 new well pads could be constructed, potentially causing ~1000, ~2,800, and ~6,700 km² of new direct landscape alteration. Almost two-thirds of all new well pads will be constructed within the geologic boundaries of the Delaware and Midland Basins. This translates into a 40%, 120%, and 300% increase in direct landscape alteration compared to direct alteration from existing well pads. We found that indirect effects (from edges) could increase by two-fold, and that the ratio between indirect and direct alteration could decline by half as alteration intensifies and overlaps with existing alteration. The Chihuahuan Desert occupies the largest portion of the study area, and is projected to experience the largest area of alteration from future well pad construction in the Permian Basin; the degree of direct alteration could increase by 70%, 200%, and 500% in this desert region, under low, medium, and high impact scenarios. These scenarios can be used to design proactive conservation strategies to reduce landscape impacts from future oil and gas development.

预测能源开发带来的景观影响，对于土地管理决策至关重要。本研究通过将当前景观趋势推演至2050年，对美国得克萨斯州与新墨西哥州经济重镇二叠纪盆地（Permian Basin）内油气井场（well pad）建设引发的景观改变进行了预测。本研究基于2008至2017年的井场建设与能源生产最新趋势，构建了低、中、高三种景观影响情景。低、中、高影响情景的结果显示，预计将分别新增约6万、18万与43万座井场，潜在分别造成约1000、2800与6700平方千米的直接景观改变面积。近三分之二的新增井场将坐落于特拉华盆地与米德兰盆地的地质边界范围内。相较于现有井场带来的直接景观改变量，上述情景下直接景观改变量将分别提升40%、120%与300%。研究发现，随着景观改变程度加剧并与既有改变区域重叠，间接效应（源自边缘效应）将增至原来的两倍，而间接与直接改变量的比值将下降一半。奇瓦瓦沙漠（Chihuahuan Desert）是本研究区域占比最大的地貌单元，预计也将成为二叠纪盆地未来井场建设带来景观改变面积最大的区域；在低、中、高三种影响情景下，该沙漠区域的直接景观改变程度将分别提升70%、200%与500%。上述情景可用于制定前瞻性保护策略，以减缓未来油气开发对景观带来的负面影响。