Geo-simulation of land use/land cover scenarios and impacts on vegetation net primary productivity of in Wuhan metropolitan area, Central China

Exploring the impact of land use/land cover (LULC) on net primary productivity (NPP) of regional vegetation is of great value in clarifying the relationship between vegetation carbon sequestration capacity and LULC change, and maintaining the stability of ecosystem structure. With the rapid process of urbanization and industrialization, large metropolitan areas are prevalent in many cities, resulting in unreasonable land use and climate, and environmental deterioration. It is well known that optimizing LULC distribution can enhance NPP yield and perfect the quality of living environment. Therefore, monitoring land cover change and analyzing its impact on NPP are key issue to supporting sustainable development. This study used Landsat data to understand LULC dynamics and NPP changes in Wuhan metropolitan area. We also employed the PLUS model to simulate multiple scenarios for LULC patterns for 2035 and 2045. The results exhibited that: (1) land cover type and spatial distribution had significant effects on NPP, (2) urban sprawl was the most significant factor affecting NPP loss, and (3) ecological green space has a significant effect on NPP yield. This study revealed the close relationship between LULC and NPP, and opened up research approaches for land use optimization and vegetation NPP based on different scenarios in the future. Our analysis not only contributes urban land use planners and supports sustainable development, but also provides important insights into improving the competitiveness of green development among cities.