Data from: Divergent rates of change between tree cover types in a tropical pastoral region

Context: Forest cover change analyses have revealed net forest gain in
many tropical regions. While most analyses have focused solely on forest
cover, trees outside forests are vital components of landscape integrity.
Quantifying regional-scale patterns of tree cover change, including
non-forest trees, could benefit forest and landscape restoration (FLR)
efforts. Objectives: We analyzed tree cover change in Southwestern Panama
to quantify: 1) patterns of change from 1998-2014, 2) differences in rates
of change between forest and non-forest classes, and 3) the relative
importance of social-ecological predictors of tree cover change between
classes. Methods: We digitized tree cover classes, including dispersed
trees, live fences, riparian forest, and forest, in very high resolution
images from 1998-2014. We then applied hurdle models to relate
social-ecological predictors to the probability and amount of tree cover
gain. Results: All tree cover classes increased in extent, but gains were
highly variable between classes. Non-forest tree cover accounted for 21%
of tree cover gains, while riparian trees constituted 31% of forest cover
gains. Drivers of tree cover change varied widely between classes, with
opposite impacts of some social-ecological predictors on non-forest and
forest cover. Conclusions: We demonstrate that key drivers of forest cover
change, including topography, road distance and historical forest cover,
do not explain rates of non-forest tree cover change. Consequently,
predictions from medium-resolution forest cover change analyses may not
apply to finer-scale patterns of tree cover. We highlight the opportunity
for FLR projects to target tree cover classes adapted to local social and
ecological conditions.