Models of individual infection risk.

The GLMM included simulation, community, and individual as random intercepts, and model effects are presented as mean [95% CI]. Multilevel Bayesian hazard models included only a community random intercept and were run separately across simulations. Coefficients for M-splines describing the baseline hazard (with 7 df) are not shown. Posteriors were combined without weighting and effects are presented as median [95% CI]. Effects are bolded if CIs do not overlap zero.本广义线性混合模型（Generalized Linear Mixed Model，GLMM）纳入模拟、社区与个体作为随机截距项，模型效应以均值[95%置信区间（Confidence Interval，CI）]呈现。 多层贝叶斯风险模型仅纳入社区随机截距项，并在各模拟场景下分别运行。 用于描述基线风险的M样条（M-splines，自由度（degrees of freedom，df）为7）的系数未予展示。 后验分布未进行加权合并，模型效应以中位数[95%置信区间]呈现。 若置信区间未与0重叠，则将对应效应以加粗字体标注。