The HKEX Licensee-Roll Census: A Registered Licence-Level Test that Failed Its Registration and Was Rated an Invalid Test of the Proposition (Protocols 1 and 2)

A registered observational census on HKEX's complete monthly List of Market Data Vendors (56 lists, 2019–2026, continuous 2022-01 to 2026-06, manifest with hashes) around the exchange's 2023-12-01 data repricing, deposited as a FAILED REGISTRATION rated an INVALID TEST of Proposition M4(ii) of The Price of Access (in preparation). Protocol 1 registered an excess of securities-side licensee entries and found none (19 post vs 23 pre; placebo flat). The post-mortem rates the test invalid on grounds visible before the outcome: a licence roll observes intermediaries, not buyers (stated in the protocol itself), and the protocol nominated the saturated limb of a two-limb event. The result enters the evidence ledger as no test, not as adverse. A ten-item known-issues register, a frame split (61 Mainland vendors moved to a separate HKEX list mid-2023), renames and parsing artifacts are documented; a dated cluster of nine Taiwanese futures brokers taking derivatives licences in the event month is reported as an unregistered observation tied to HKEX-IS notice MDD/23/714. Protocol 2 (frozen 2026-09-04, hashed) registers the corrected design — limb by pre-event saturation, alias table before counting, date-interval jump statistic — on the 2026-07-01 enterprise-package discount, with its first verdict after the 2026-12-31 list. Ledger 5/5; parser, ledgers and all lists included.