Delays in the construction of power plants from electricity auctions in Brazil

This database was compiled gathering information published by the Brazilian Power Trade Chamber (CCEE), the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) and the Independent System Operator (ONS). Basic information on project characteristics, commercial operation date, and main PPA features were obtained from the combination of two CCEE's monthly updated publications: the “Consolidated Auction Results” (CCEE, 2021a) and the “Market Information Bulletin - Individual Project Data” (CCEE, 2021b). Additionally, we accessed auction notices and PPA drafts to verify, for each case, the auction design features employed, such as technological banding (technology-specific or multi-technology products), preliminary phase for project elimination by connection point and allocation of transmission delays risks to project developers. The resulting database contains, for each project, information regarding energy source, geographic location, installed capacity; date of effective start of commercial operation, project status (in operation, delayed or cancelled); auction type, date and relevant design features; contract modality (quantity or availability); start and end date of the contracted supply period; bidding price and average energy traded per year. We focus on auction rounds related to the construction of new power plants and for which deadlines had been met by December 2021. Regarding wind power and solar photovoltaic plants, based on information extracted from ONS (2022), 660 projects were grouped into 130 complexes, each considered as a single project, as they usually share the same facilities, developers, licensing and construction process. For projects that sold energy in more than one auction, we considered only the first auction in which the project was awarded a contract. In the end, 523 obs. remained in the grouped database , which comprises all bid winners, including projects that have been officially cancelled or those with extremely large delays and low probability of realization. For the econometric analysis developed in the paper, we restricted the sample in 4 steps. First, we dropped 83 fossil-fuel thermal plants and kept just the most relevant sources in terms of number of projects and installed capacity: Wind, Solar PV, Biomass and Hydropower (large and small) plants. Second, we excluded 50 officially cancelled projects. Third, we removed 28 projects with extremely small implementation times (less than one year), which does not seem compatible with construction times for the technologies. Finally, we filtered out 23 projects that have been either delayed or anticipated by more than 3 years from the auction deadline, which indicates high probability that the schedule of such projects is related to specificities beyond the project features and auction design elements under analysis. Thus, the final sample for statistical analysis contains 339 projects. We added a Dictionary with descriptions on the main variables of the databases.

本数据库整合了巴西电力交易商会（Brazilian Power Trade Chamber, CCEE）、巴西电力监管局（Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency, ANEEL）与独立系统运营商（Independent System Operator, ONS）发布的各类信息。项目特征、商业运营日期以及购电协议（Power Purchase Agreement, PPA）核心特征等基础信息，来自CCEE两份月度更新出版物的整合数据：《合并拍卖结果报告》（CCEE, 2021a）与《市场信息公报——单个项目数据》（CCEE, 2021b）。此外，研究团队通过查阅拍卖公告与购电协议草案，逐一验证本次研究所采用的拍卖设计特征，包括技术绑定（技术专属或多技术产品）、基于接入点的项目淘汰前置阶段，以及将输电延迟风险分配给项目开发商的规则。最终构建的数据库为每个项目收录了以下信息：能源类型、地理位置、装机容量；商业运营正式启动日期、项目状态（已运营、延期或取消）；拍卖类型、拍卖日期及相关设计特征；合同模式（电量型或容量型）；合约供电周期的起止日期；投标价格与年均交易电量。本研究聚焦于与新建电厂相关的拍卖批次，且所有项目需在2021年12月前完成截止时限要求。针对风电与太阳能光伏（Solar PV）电站，基于ONS（2022）提取的信息，研究团队将660个项目整合为130个综合体，每个综合体视为单个项目——因其通常共享相同的设施、开发商、许可与建设流程。对于多次参与拍卖并成功售电的项目，研究仅纳入其首次获得合约的拍卖数据。最终整合后的数据库共包含523条观测值（observations, obs.），覆盖所有中标投标人，其中包括已正式取消或延期严重、落地概率极低的项目。为开展本论文中的计量经济学分析，研究团队通过四个步骤对样本进行筛选：第一步，剔除83座化石燃料热电厂，仅保留在项目数量与装机容量方面均具代表性的能源类型：风电、太阳能光伏、生物质能与水电（含大、小型水电）电站；第二步，排除50个已正式取消的项目；第三步，移除28个实施周期极短（不足1年）的项目——此类周期与对应技术的常规建设时长明显不符；最后，剔除23个较拍卖截止日期延期或提前超过3年的项目，此类项目的进度大概率与本研究分析的项目特征及拍卖设计要素之外的特殊因素相关。最终用于统计分析的样本共包含339个项目。本研究还附加了一份字典文件，对数据库的主要变量进行说明。