<b>NEXUS BETWEEN NON-FERROUS METALS AND GLOBAL UNCERTAINTIES: INSIGHT FROM THE NICKEL CRASH</b>

Drawing insights from the nickel crash, the study assessed the impact of the Ahir-led world uncertainty index (WUI) on industrial metals while also considering investor sentiments (VIX), crude oil volatility (OVX), and United States Policy Uncertainty (USPU). The study encompassed weekly data from January 2016 to January 2024, employing quantile regression (QR), quantile-on-quantile (QQR), and its causal components. QR analysis unveiled a feeble yet significant adverse sway of WUI on all sample metals across most quantiles, with zinc (lead) exhibiting weak, insignificant positive (mixed) nexus WUI. This adverse influence suggests the incapacity of these metals to function as hedges or safe havens during normal or turbulent periods. Nonetheless, the sporadic positive nexus with zinc hints at its limited hedge and haven potential. Analysis also highlighted the negligible impact of control variables on metals, except for VIX and aluminium at the 15th quantile, confirmed through QQR. The diverse coefficients observed in metals underscore the adaptive and heterogeneous market nature while disputing the established haven status in literature.本研究以镍价崩盘事件为研究切入点，评估了由Ahir主导编制的世界不确定性指数（World Uncertainty Index, WUI）对工业金属的影响，同时纳入投资者情绪指标（VIX）、原油波动率（OVX）以及美国政策不确定性（USPU）作为控制变量。本研究采用2016年1月至2024年1月的周度数据，运用分位数回归（quantile regression, QR）、分位数-分位数回归（quantile-on-quantile, QQR）及其因果分量分析方法展开实证分析。分位数回归结果显示，在绝大多数分位点上，WUI对所有样本工业金属均呈现出微弱但显著的负向影响；其中锌（铅）与WUI仅存在微弱且不显著的正向（混合）关联。这种负向影响表明，在正常或市场动荡时期，此类工业金属均无法充当对冲工具或避险资产。不过，锌与WUI之间偶尔出现的正向关联则暗示，其仅具备有限的对冲与避险潜力。分析结果还表明，除在第15分位点处的VIX与铝之外，其余控制变量对工业金属的影响均可忽略不计，该结论通过分位数-分位数回归得到了验证。不同工业金属呈现出的差异化系数特征，凸显了市场的适应性与异质性特质，同时也对现有文献中已确立的工业金属避险地位提出了质疑。