Baseline regression.

Regional sustainable development is a fundamental pathway toward achieving long-term economic stability, social equity, and ecological balance. Particularly in the face of unexpected shocks and systemic risks, economic resilience plays a critical role in ensuring the attainment of sustainability goals. Drawing on endogenous growth theory and dynamic capabilities theory, this study focuses on 31 provincial-level administrative divisions in mainland China as the target regions, utilizing panel data from 2004 to 2023 to empirically examine the relationships. The baseline regression results indicate a significant positive effect of economic resilience on sustainable development. Moderation analysis further reveals that industrial diversification, human capital, and environmental regulation significantly enhance the positive impact of resilience. Mediation tests show that economic resilience promotes sustainable development indirectly by improving the level of marketization. Heterogeneity analysis confirms that the impact of economic resilience on sustainable development varies significantly across regions. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for governments to formulate more effective risk-mitigation policies and for firms to identify more stable regions for investment.区域可持续发展是实现长期经济稳定、社会公平与生态平衡的核心路径。在面临突发冲击与系统性风险的当下，经济韧性（economic resilience）对于达成可持续发展目标发挥着至关重要的作用。本研究基于内生增长理论（endogenous growth theory）与动态能力理论（dynamic capabilities theory），以中国大陆31个省级行政区为研究对象，采用2004-2023年的面板数据（panel data）对上述关系进行实证检验。基准回归（baseline regression）结果显示，经济韧性对可持续发展具有显著的正向影响。调节效应分析（Moderation analysis）进一步表明，产业多元化（industrial diversification）、人力资本（human capital）与环境规制（environmental regulation）能够显著强化经济韧性的正向促进作用。中介效应检验（Mediation tests）结果显示，经济韧性可通过提升市场化水平（marketization level）间接推动可持续发展。异质性分析（Heterogeneity analysis）证实，经济韧性对可持续发展的影响在不同区域间存在显著差异。本研究结论可为政府制定更具针对性的风险缓释政策（risk-mitigation policies）以及企业遴选更具稳定性的投资区域提供科学依据。