Corresponding data of methods.

Facing the dual challenges of economic growth and environmental conservation, advancing urban green high-quality development (UGHQD) is crucial for sustainable urban development. Rooted in the concept of UGHQD, this study develops a multidimensional evaluation indicator system encompassing economic development, social progress, and ecological civilization. By applying spatial autocorrelation analysis, cold and hot spots analysis, standard deviation ellipse, and Kernel density estimation, it examines the spatial distribution and dynamic evolution of UGHQD across China and its four major regions (Eastern, Central, Western, and Northeastern) from 2003 to 2020. It also forecasts the trajectory of UGHQD from 2021 to 2025. The research findings indicate: (1) A steady annual increase in the overall level of UGHQD, with a geographic pattern showing high levels in the east, moderate in the center, and low in the west. (2) A spatial agglomeration in UGHQD, predominantly in the eastern region, demonstrating spatio-temporal inertia. (3) Varying degrees of a “right-tail” phenomenon in the UGHQD across China and its four sub-regions, indicating a polarization trend or even a weak multi-polarization trend. (4) A forecast of continuous, steady growth in UGHQD from 2021 to 2025, with the eastern region maintaining its leading position. This study offers insights that enhancing our understanding of the fundamental concepts underlying UGHQD, providing a practical foundation and policy guidance for future collaborative efforts in enhancing urban development quality.面对经济增长与环境保护的双重挑战，推进城市绿色高质量发展（Urban Green High-quality Development，UGHQD）对于城市可持续发展至关重要。本研究立足于城市绿色高质量发展的理念，构建了涵盖经济发展、社会进步与生态文明的多维度评价指标体系。通过运用空间自相关分析、冷热点分析、标准差椭圆与核密度估计（Kernel density estimation），本研究考察了2003-2020年中国及其东部、中部、西部、东北四大区域的城市绿色高质量发展水平的空间分布与动态演化特征，并对2021-2025年的城市绿色高质量发展轨迹进行了预测。研究结果显示：其一，全国城市绿色高质量发展整体水平逐年稳步提升，空间格局呈现东高、中平、西低的分布特征；其二，城市绿色高质量发展存在空间集聚现象，且主要集中于东部地区，呈现出较强的时空惯性；其三，全国及四大区域的城市绿色高质量发展均存在不同程度的右尾现象，反映出极化趋势甚至弱多极化趋势；其四，2021-2025年城市绿色高质量发展将持续稳步增长，东部地区将继续保持领先地位。本研究有助于深化对城市绿色高质量发展核心内涵的理解，为未来提升城市发展质量的协同实践提供现实依据与政策指引。