Relationships of climate, human activity, and fire history to spatiotemporal variation in annual fire probability across California: Source Code and Core Data

In the face of recent wildfires across the Western United States, it is essential that we understand both the dynamics that drive the spatial distribution of wildfire, and the major obstacles to modeling the probability of wildfire over space and time.  However, it is well documented that the precise relationships of local vegetation, climate, and ignitions, and how they influence fire dynamics, may vary over space and among local climate, vegetation, and land use regimes.  This raises questions not only as to the nature of the potentially nonlinear relationships between local conditions and the fire, but also the possibility that the scale at which such models are developed may be critical to their predictive power and to the apparent relationship of local conditions to wildfire.  In this study we demonstrate that both local climate – through limitations posed by fuel dryness (CWD) and availability (AET) – and human activity – through housing density, roads, electrical infrastructure, ...

面对近期美国西部发生的野火灾害，明晰驱动野火空间分布的动态机制，以及制约野火时空概率建模的主要障碍，均为至关重要的研究课题。已有大量文献证实，局地植被、气候与起火源之间的精准关联，以及它们对野火动态的影响方式，会随空间尺度以及局地气候、植被和土地利用格局的不同而发生变化。这不仅引出了关于局地环境与野火间潜在非线性关系本质的疑问，同时也提出了另一项可能性：此类模型的构建尺度，或许对其预测能力以及局地环境与野火间的表观关联均具有关键影响。本研究证实，局地气候——通过燃料干燥度（CWD）与实际蒸散量（AET）所施加的限制——以及人类活动——通过住房密度、道路设施、电力基础设施……