National Accounts- Quarterlies Data Collection June 2022

Gross domestic product: June 2022 quarter – changes and data updates Introduction Gross domestic product (GDP) sources and methods are thoroughly documented (see: Quarterly gross domestic product: Sources and methods (second edition), with a further update in Quarterly gross domestic product: Sources and methods (fifth edition). The use of alternative indicators used to capture the impacts of COVID-19 is also summarised in the Overview of sources and methods for quarterly gross domestic product: Updates and COVID-19 adjustments. The quarterly indicators used to compile our estimate of GDP are the best that we have available at that point in time. When compiling our quarterly estimates, we usually face trade-offs between timeliness and the quality, coverage, length of historical series, and/or conceptual alignment of available data sources to the component it is meant to represent. As a result, the methodologies that we use vary depending on the data available and are underpinned by certain assumptions. In normal periods of activity, these assumptions provide us with reasonable estimates of activity. In periods of abrupt disruption (such as the COVID-19 alert level 4 lockdowns) some of these relationships have weakened or no longer hold. Changes made due to COVID-19 We’ve continued to review and refine approaches applied in each of the quarters from March 2020 to June 2022 by confronting our usual quarterly indicators against other data sources to identify instances where our usual quarterly indicators were unable to represent the actual level of activity through the quarter. Where appropriate, we have used alternative data sources in place of the usual quarterly indicator. We have reviewed all components in the June 2022 quarter and, where necessary, have again used alternative indicators to ensure the effects of the COVID pandemic and related restrictions on activity are appropriately measured. June 2022 quarter gross domestic product and COVID-19 has details of the alternative data sources and changes in methods applied. It includes latest updates on Key events in the June 2022 quarter Data and methodology considerations Data updates to GDP(P) and GDP(E) components Overview of sources and methods for quarterly gross domestic product: Updates and COVID-19 adjustments is an updated guide to the concepts and methods we are using to compile gross domestic product (GDP) during COVID-19 in New Zealand. Seasonal adjustment additive outlier treatment Sharp changes in activity, such as those caused by the lockdown, pose challenges for our usual seasonal adjustment processes. We have continued our use of additive outliers to treat unusual data points for the June 2022 quarter and retained the previous outliers applied from March 2020 quarter onwards. This has the effect of subduing the impact of unusual data points on the seasonal adjustment process. This quarter we have included some additional additive outliers within Household Consumption Expenditure; and Imports and Exports. This means that the seasonally adjusted estimates of these series are modelled principally from the usual seasonality that existed prior to COVID. We will likely retain this approach until a time when relative normality has returned to the economy. Corrections to quarterly gross domestic product Correction to Imports and Exports of goods categories In the March 2022 quarter release we noted that we had identified errors related to the implementation of a new set of Harmonised System (HS) codes which are used to categorise imports and exports. These errors were largely accounted for in the March 2022 GDP release, but following further review there are small updates to the categorisation of imports and exports in the June 2022 quarter GDP release. Correction to Mining and Gross fixed capital formation – Intangibles Correcting a data input error has led to small data updates to both mining and gross fixed capital formation – intangibles in the March 2022 quarter. Correction to Central government final consumption expenditure Correcting a data input error has led to small data update in Central government final consumption expenditure throughout the timeseries. Improvement to Gross fixed capital formation – transport equipment We have discovered timing issues between imports and gross fixed capital formation of transport equipment. To account for this discrepancy, we have updated Gross fixed capital formation - Transport equipment in the December 2021 and March 2022 quarters. Incorporating updated Business Financial Data (BFD) Changes due to updated Business Financial Data (BFD) Updated financial data from the business financial data: June 2022 quarter has led to some changes where we have been using the BFD data collection as alternative indicators from our normal methodology. This contributed to changes in: Professional, scientific, technical administrative and support services Healthcare and social assistance Household consumption expenditure Updates due to improvements in applying alternative indicators from Business Financial Data (BFD) There have been minor updates to components which use the BFD collection that are not due to the BFD updating, but instead due to other improvements in the processing of BFD data to form our alternative indicators. This has contributed to updates in: Fishing, aquaculture, and agriculture, forestry and fishing support services Construction Retail and Accommodation Transport, postal and warehousing Information, media and telecommunications Professional, scientific, technical administrative and support services Healthcare and social assistance Gross fixed capital formation – intangibles Household consumption expenditure Changes due to updated indicator data Incorporating annual agricultural production statistics We incorporated data from Agricultural production statistics: Year to June 2021 (final). The data replaced earlier published data and modelled stock levels. Incorporating the data led to updates to agricultural activity in GDP, and to agricultural inventories in the expenditure measure of GDP. These changes caused updates from the June 2020 quarter onwards. Incorporating updated QBAS data The Quarterly Building Activity Survey (QBAS) has updated data from June 2021 quarter onwards. This has caused changes to both construction and gross fixed capital formation over the same time period. Please see Value of building work put in place: June 2022 quarter for more information. Incorporating updated balance of payments data Updates to balance of payments data are made annually to stay in line with international best practices. Changes can be due to new or updated information becoming available, new, or updated annual benchmarks and conceptual or methodical changes. The largest changes are to the export and import of services, and these have flow on impacts to components of household consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation from June 2021 quarter onwards. See Balance of payments and international investment position: June 2022 quarter for further information. Updates to travel debits in production-side industries As highlighted in June 2022 quarter gross domestic product and COVID-19, minor travel debits adjustments are added into multiple production-side industries to account for lower international travel due to COVID. Updates to the data used in this process has caused minor changes to many production-side industries, most readily seen in the March 2022 quarter. Changes due to updated indicator data We received updated respondent information and other source data, causing updates to: Agriculture – updated data from the Agricultural Production Survey (APS) Manufacturing – updated BFD data Electricity, gas, water and waste services – new and updated Linked Employer-Employee Data (LEED) Construction – updated QBAS data Wholesale Trade – updated BFD data Retail and accommodation – updated BFD data Information, media, and telecommunications – updated administrative data from Inland Revenue Department Finance and insurance – updated FISIM data, updated Insurance Data Rental, hiring, and real estate services – updated REINZ and QVNZ data, updated FISIM data Public administration and safety, local government – updated QLAS data Central government administration, defence, and public safety – updated EMS and other input data Central Government final consumption expenditure – updated SABIKS data Local government final consumption expenditure – updated QLAS data Gross fixed capital formation – Non-residential buildings, Residential buildings – updated REINZ and QVNZ data, updated QBAS data Household consumption expenditure – miscellaneous goods and services – updated FISIM data Household consumption expenditure – communications - updated administrative data from Inland Revenue Department Imports and exports – updated FISIM data Unallocated taxes – flow-through from updates to household consumption expenditure Updates to inventories Updates were also made during the process of reconciling change in inventories with other movements in production and expenditure series. This process is designed to minimise inconsistencies in timing and valuation. Implementing updated quarterly methodologies Incorporating new road transport indicator We have updated the methodology for Road transport to better account for the change in road user charges, which came into place in March 2022. This has caused an update to Transport, postal and warehousing in the March 2022 quarter. Updates to Education and Training We have improved the adjustment process for tertiary education, leading to changes in Education and training from the March 2021 quarter onwards. Updates to Household consumption expenditure – transport We have improved the adjustment methodology for Household consumption expenditure on transport to better capture the impacts of Covid as well as the impacts of changes in fares. This has caused changes to Household consumption expenditure from March 2021 onwards. Data updates table The following table shows previously published and updated quarterly movements for the June 2017 – March 2022 quarters’ GDP and expenditure on GDP (GDE). There were also some changes to earlier quarters, but these were less material. Previously published and updated quarterly movements Gross domestic product Gross domestic expenditure Percentage change from previous quarter Quarter Previously published Updated 15 September 2022 Previously published Updated 15 September 2022 June 2017 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 September 2017 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 December 2017 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 March 2018 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 June 2018 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 September 2018 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 December 2018 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 March 2019 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 June 2019 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 September 2019 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 December 2019 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 March 2020 -1.2 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 June 2020 -10.3 -10.4 -9.2 -9.5 September 2020 13.7 13.7 14.0 14.3 December 2020 -0.4 -0.4 -1.0 -1.0 March 2021 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 June 2021 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.0 September 2021 -3.8 -3.9 -4.3 -4.7 December 2021 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.8 March 2022 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 Source: Stats NZ en-NZ