Mitigating regional employment disparities through flexible coal power phasedown and workforce resettlement

Coal power phasedown in China could exacerbate regional employment disparities, particularly in coal-dependent provinces. With coal power increasingly serving as a flexible backup for renewable energy integration, reducing utilization rates has been proposed to balance decarbonization and grid stability. However, the socio-economic impacts of this approach remain unclear. This study quantifies how reductions in utilization rates, coupled with workforce resettlement strategies, can mitigate employment disparities under 1.5°C and 2°C climate targets. Through unit-level analysis and Integrated Assessment Model simulations, we find that achieving climate targets could risk up to 480,000 jobs nationwide by 2060, where northern provinces facing 2.6 times job losses of southern coastal regions before 2030. Lowering utilization rates preserves up to 23.6% of jobs in key northern provinces (e.g. Shandong) by 2040, postpones the national peak unemployment period by 10–15 years, and reduces peak losses by 23.8%, creating a critical buffer for regional energy and economic transition. Redeployment among workforce resettlement strategies incurs the lowest per capita cost (140,800 RMB), which should be prioritized for workforce resettlement. Through a combination of lower utilization rate and resettlement portfolio strategies, it is possible to reduce resettlement cost by 2.27∼2.58 billion RMB. But Coal-dependent provinces like Shandong and Inner Mongolia still face high economic burdens due to larger job losses scales. The employment disparities during the coal power transition requires region-specific strategies and sustained policy support. Our findings offer practical insights for a just transition in China and other coal-reliant economies. KEY POLICY INSIGHTSThe phasedown of coal power is essential for achieving climate targets. However, for this transition to succeed, it is crucial that it be carried out in a fair and equitable way, addressing the socio-economic impacts on affected regions and workers.In order to ease transitions in high-impact regions, coal power retirement timelines should be tailored by provincial governments, considering local economic dependence and workforce risks as well as flexible operational adjustments of power plants.Integrate renewable energy development with comprehensive social protection systems in coal-intensive regions to ensure a just transition through coordinated industrial and labour market policies. The phasedown of coal power is essential for achieving climate targets. However, for this transition to succeed, it is crucial that it be carried out in a fair and equitable way, addressing the socio-economic impacts on affected regions and workers. In order to ease transitions in high-impact regions, coal power retirement timelines should be tailored by provincial governments, considering local economic dependence and workforce risks as well as flexible operational adjustments of power plants. Integrate renewable energy development with comprehensive social protection systems in coal-intensive regions to ensure a just transition through coordinated industrial and labour market policies.中国煤电的逐步缩减可能加剧区域就业差距，尤其在煤炭依赖型省份。随着煤电日益成为可再生能源并网的灵活备用电源，降低机组利用率被提议用以平衡脱碳与电网稳定的需求。然而，该举措带来的社会经济影响仍不明朗。本研究量化了在1.5℃与2℃气候目标下，降低机组利用率配合劳动力安置策略，如何缓解就业差距。通过机组级分析与综合评估模型（Integrated Assessment Model）模拟，本研究发现，到2060年实现气候目标可能使全国面临多达48万个就业岗位流失风险，其中2030年前北方省份的失业规模是南部沿海地区的2.6倍。降低机组利用率可在2040年前为北方重点省份（如山东）保留多达23.6%的就业岗位，将全国失业峰值期延后10至15年，并将峰值失业规模降低23.8%，为区域能源与经济转型构筑关键缓冲。劳动力安置策略中的再调配方案人均成本最低（140800元人民币），应作为劳动力安置的优先选项。通过结合降低机组利用率与安置组合策略，可将安置总成本降低22.7亿至25.8亿元人民币。但诸如山东、内蒙古这类煤炭依赖型省份仍因更大规模的岗位流失面临沉重经济负担。煤电转型过程中的就业差距问题，需要因地制宜的策略与持续的政策支持。本研究结论可为中国及其他依赖煤炭的经济体实现公平转型（just transition）提供实践参考。核心政策洞察：煤电逐步缩减是实现气候目标的必要举措。但要确保转型成功，必须以公平公正的方式推进，妥善应对受影响地区与劳动者面临的社会经济影响。为缓解高影响地区的转型压力，省级政府应结合当地经济依赖度、劳动力风险与电厂灵活运营调整需求，量身定制煤电退役时间表。在煤炭密集型地区，应将可再生能源开发与完善的社会保障体系相结合，通过协同的产业与劳动力市场政策保障公平转型（just transition）。煤电逐步缩减是实现气候目标的必要举措。但要确保转型成功，必须以公平公正的方式推进，妥善应对受影响地区与劳动者面临的社会经济影响。为缓解高影响地区的转型压力，省级政府应结合当地经济依赖度、劳动力风险与电厂灵活运营调整需求，量身定制煤电退役时间表。在煤炭密集型地区，应将可再生能源开发与完善的社会保障体系相结合，通过协同的产业与劳动力市场政策保障公平转型（just transition）。