Argentina: Cavallo, lope for disaster?

ABSTRACT This paper analyses the latest stabilization effort in Argentina, the Cavallo Plan (named after its mentor, Domingo Cavallo). The analytical framework is the tradeable - non tradeable textbook model, also known as the dependent economy model, from the Australian trade literature. The model is extended to include the effect of real wages on aggregate demand, and therefore on activity. A Phillips curve description of inflation is also added. It is shown that, by moving from a floating to a fixed-exchange rate regime, the Argentinian economy attained domestic equilibrium, at the cost of balance of payments equilibrium. The paper shows that the ensuing trade deficit may lead to a classical run on reserves, forcing the return to floating exchange rates. In the process, the economy will go through a complete economic cycle, returning to inflation.摘要 本文针对阿根廷最新的经济稳定化政策——卡瓦洛计划（Cavallo Plan，以其倡导者多明戈·卡瓦洛（Domingo Cavallo）命名）展开分析。本文采用源自澳大利亚贸易研究文献的经典可贸易品-不可贸易品（tradeable-non tradeable）模型，亦称依附经济模型（dependent economy model）作为分析框架。该模型经拓展后纳入了实际工资对总需求乃至经济活动的影响，同时还补充了基于菲利普斯曲线（Phillips curve）的通胀刻画方式。研究表明，阿根廷经济从浮动汇率制转向固定汇率制后，实现了国内均衡，但却以牺牲国际收支均衡为代价。随之产生的贸易赤字可能引发经典的储备挤兑现象，迫使该国重回浮动汇率制度。在此过程中，该国经济将经历完整的经济周期，并重回通胀状态。