Precipitation and vegetation shape patterns of genomic and craniometric variation in the Central African rodent Praomys misonnei

Predicting species capacity to respond to climate change is an essential
first step in developing effective conservation strategies. However,
conservation prioritization schemes rarely take evolutionary potential
into account. Ecotones provide important opportunities for diversifying
selection and may thus constitute important reservoirs of standing
variation, increasing the capacity for future adaptation. Here we map
patterns of environmentally-associated genomic and craniometric variation
in the central African rodent Praomys misonnei to identify areas with the
greatest turnover in genomic composition. We also project patterns of
environmentally-associated genomic variation under future climate change
scenarios to determine where populations may be under the greatest
pressure to adapt. While precipitation gradients influence both genomic
and craniometric variation, craniometric variation is also affected by
changes in vegetation structure. Areas of elevated
environmentally-associated genomic and craniometric variation overlap with
zones of rapid ecological transition underlining their importance as
reservoirs of evolutionary potential. We find that populations in the
Sanaga river basin, central Cameroon and coastal Gabon are likely to be
under the greatest pressure from climate change. Lastly, we make specific
conservation recommendations on how to protect zones of high evolutionary
potential and identify areas where populations will be the most
susceptible to climate change.