Base Regression, Probit and OLS.

This study investigates the impact of advanced electricity outage announcements on the operational efficiency of small and medium enterprises (SMEs), in Egypt, using profitability as a key performance indicator. Leveraging data from “Transition to Clean Energy Enterprise Survey” and applying the inverse probability-weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) method to address selection bias, we estimate how outage predictability influences firm outcomes. We find that SMEs receiving advance notice of power disruptions are significantly more likely to achieve higher profitability compared to those without such information. The benefits are most evident among larger firms and sectors such as transportation, financial services, and accommodation, where operational planning is critical. While the policy partially offsets losses from outages, firms in areas with frequent blackouts still face substantial profitability challenges, highlighting the limits of transparency alone. Our findings emphasize that advance announcements enhance SME resilience by enabling adaptive measures, but long-term solutions require complementary infrastructure investments in high-risk regions. The study advocates for policy frameworks centered on transparency and rational expectations, demonstrating how proactive communication in public services can bolster economic resilience amid global uncertainties. These insights are particularly relevant for developing economies seeking to balance immediate crisis management with sustainable energy infrastructure development.本研究以埃及的中小企业（SMEs）为研究对象，以盈利能力作为核心绩效指标，探讨提前发布电力停电通知对其运营效率的影响。本研究利用“清洁能源转型企业调查（Transition to Clean Energy Enterprise Survey）”的数据集，采用逆概率加权回归调整（IPWRA）方法解决选择性偏差问题，进而评估停电可预测性对企业经营成果的影响。研究结果显示，相较于未获取停电相关信息的企业，收到电力中断提前通知的中小企业盈利能力显著更高。此类收益在规模较大的企业以及交通运输、金融服务、住宿等行业中最为显著——这些领域的运营规划至关重要。尽管此类政策可部分抵消停电带来的损失，但频发停电地区的企业仍面临严峻的盈利能力挑战，这凸显出仅依靠信息透明的局限性。本研究结论表明，提前发布停电通知可通过帮助企业采取适应性措施提升中小企业的抗风险能力，但长期解决方案仍需在高风险地区配套基础设施投资。本研究倡导构建以信息透明与理性预期为核心的政策框架，揭示了在全球不确定性背景下，公共服务领域的主动沟通如何能够强化经济抗风险能力。上述研究结论对于寻求在即时危机管理与可持续能源基础设施发展之间取得平衡的发展中经济体而言尤为适用。