Niche shifts and the potential distribution of Phenacoccus solenopsis (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) under climate change

The cotton mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), is a serious invasive species that significantly damages plants of approximately 60 families around the world. It is originally from North America and has also been introduced to other continents. Our goals were to create a current and future potential global distribution map for this pest under climate change with MaxEnt software. We tested the hypothesis of niche conservatism for P. solenopsis by comparing its native niche in North America to its invasive niches on other continents using Principal components analyses (PCA) in R. The potentially suitable habitat for P. solenopsis in its native and non-native ranges is presented in the present paper. The results suggested that the mean temperature of the wettest quarter and the mean temperature of the driest quarter are the most important environmental variables determining the potential distribution of P. solenopsis. We found strong evidence for niche shifts in the realized climatic niche of this pest in South America and Australia due to niche unfilling; however, a niche shift in the realized climatic niche of this pest in Eurasian owing to niche expansion.扶桑绵粉蚧（Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley，半翅目Hemiptera粉蚧科Pseudococcidae）是一种极具危害性的入侵物种，可在全球范围内侵染约60个科的植物并造成严重为害。该虫原产于北美洲，后被传入其他各大洲。本研究旨在借助MaxEnt软件，构建该害虫在气候变化背景下当前及未来的全球潜在适生分布区地图。本研究通过R语言中的主成分分析（Principal Components Analysis，PCA），比较该粉蚧在北美洲的原生生态位与其他大陆的入侵生态位，以此验证其生态位保守性假说。本文呈现了该粉蚧在原生分布区与非原生分布区的潜在适生栖息地。研究结果显示，最湿季平均温与最干季平均温是决定该粉蚧潜在分布的最重要环境变量。我们发现，受生态位未填充影响，该害虫在南美洲与澳大利亚的实际气候生态位发生了显著偏移；而在欧亚大陆，受生态位扩张影响，其实际气候生态位同样发生了偏移。