Structural Concentration of Extreme Precipitation in High-Ω States (Tokyo) — Minimal Reproducible Test

This record provides a minimal, reproducible test of structural concentration in a weather domain. Using daily precipitation data (Open-Meteo, Tokyo), we test whether extreme precipitation events concentrate in a predefined high-Ω regime under fixed, ex-ante definitions. Result: P(collapse | high Ω): 0.48 Baseline: 0.050 Ratio: 9.47× Ω is defined as: Ω = I × G I: rolling standard deviation of precipitation (window = 30) G: absolute daily change in precipitation Definitions: - high Ω = Ω > q(0.99) (execution layer) - collapse = precipitation > q(0.95) All definitions are fixed prior to evaluation and are independent (non-circular). This is not a predictive model. No optimization is performed. The result reports conditional frequency, not timing prediction. Reproducibility: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1hCA98FhUjrJd9xYC9c02qm6pjcGpWhWP Data: Open-Meteo (public) Code: included in the Colab notebook本数据集针对气象领域的结构集中度开展了一项极简可复现的测试。 本研究采用Open-Meteo提供的东京逐日降水数据，基于事前固定的判据，检验极端降水事件是否会集中于预先定义的高Ω状态区间内。 测试结果： P(极端降水 | 高Ω状态)：0.48 基准值：0.050 比值：9.47倍 Ω的定义如下： Ω = I × G 其中，I为降水的滚动标准差（窗口长度为30），G为降水的日绝对变化量。 判据定义： - 高Ω状态：Ω大于0.99分位数（执行阈值） - 极端降水事件：单日降水量超过0.95分位数 所有判据均在评估前预先固定，且相互独立，不存在循环论证问题。 本测试未构建预测模型，未执行任何优化操作，所得结果仅为条件频率，而非时序预测结果。 可复现性链接：https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1hCA98FhUjrJd9xYC9c02qm6pjcGpWhWP 数据来源：Open-Meteo（公开数据集） 代码已包含于上述Colab笔记本中