Impact of avocado exports on Peruvian economic growth

The avocado has gained worldwide relevance due to its nutritional benefits, and in the last two decades, its consumption has experienced remarkable growth, driven by changes in eating habits, especially during the pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) virus. This boom has had a significant impact on exporting countries such as Peru, which stands out as a key driver of economic growth due to avocado exports. The present study aims to analyse the impact of avocado exports on Peru's economic growth during the period 2005-2023, utilising a quantitative approach and a non-experimental design, employing the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model. The findings indicated that avocado exports and the gross domestic agricultural product exert a positive influence on economic growth, with a statistical significance of 97%. This suggests that a 1% rise in exports results in a 0.40% increase in GDP.Avocado exports have been instrumental in enhancing Peru's economic competitiveness on the global stage, although challenges persist with regard to sustainability and the inclusion of small-scale producers. The study concluded with the assertion that avocado exports exert a positive effect on 0.40% of economic growth in per capita terms, with an overall significance of 97%. This finding allows us to infer, through the factors, that avocado exports play an important role in market dynamics and in contributing to Peru's economic growth, as well as their important implications for sustainable development policies.牛油果因其营养价值在全球范围内广受关注，近二十年来，在饮食习惯转变的推动下，其消费量实现了显著增长，这一趋势在严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒（SARS-CoV-2）引发的新冠疫情期间尤为突出。这一消费热潮对秘鲁等牛油果出口国产生了深远影响，秘鲁凭借牛油果出口成为该国经济增长的核心驱动力之一。本研究旨在采用定量研究方法与非实验设计，借助普通最小二乘法（Ordinary Least Squares, OLS）模型，分析2005-2023年间牛油果出口对秘鲁经济增长的影响。研究结果显示，牛油果出口与农业国内生产总值对经济增长具有正向影响，统计显著性达97%。这意味着出口每增长1%，国内生产总值（Gross Domestic Product, GDP）将提升0.40%。牛油果出口对提升秘鲁在全球市场的经济竞争力发挥了重要作用，但在可持续性发展与小生产者的普惠参与层面仍存在诸多挑战。本研究最终得出结论：牛油果出口对人均经济增长具有0.40%的正向拉动效应，整体统计显著性达97%。基于上述研究发现，我们可以通过相关影响因素推断，牛油果出口在市场运行机制与推动秘鲁经济增长方面均扮演着重要角色，同时对可持续发展政策的制定具有重要参考价值。