Current account and real exchange rate equilibrium: the case of manufacturing in Mexico, 2001-2019

ABSTRACT In this paper, we follow Bresser-Pereira et al. (2021) and estimate for Mexico a a series of the real exchange rate (RER) that balances the current account for Mexico for the period 2001q1-2019q4. In this process we take into account numerous determinants, including policy variables and financial indicators the evolution of the terms of trade, as well as a proxi for the Balassa-Samuelson effects, inter alia. Our results show that in most of the period analyzed there has been a trend tendency towards overvaluation, with the RER fluctuating above its equilibrium level. With cointegrating methods, and dynamic ordinary least squared (DOLS) techniques, we examined the effects of exchange rate under and overvaluation on manufacturing; disaggregated in three sectors: i) technology intensive, ii) natural resource intensive and iii) labor intensive activities. Overall, our results indicate that the real exchange rate has a significant influence on the rate of expansion of Mexico’s manufacturing real GDP.

摘要 本文遵循Bresser-Pereira等人（2021）的研究范式，针对墨西哥2001年第一季度至2019年第四季度的时段，估算出一系列可平衡墨西哥经常账户的实际汇率（real exchange rate, RER）。估算过程中，我们纳入了诸多影响因素，包括政策变量、金融指标、贸易条件的演变，以及巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应（Balassa-Samuelson effects）的代理变量等。研究结果显示，在本次分析的绝大多数时段内，实际汇率呈现出被高估的趋势，其波动始终高于均衡水平。本文采用协整方法与动态普通最小二乘（dynamic ordinary least squared, DOLS）技术，检验了汇率低估与高估对制造业的影响，并将制造业拆分为三大细分领域：其一为技术密集型产业，其二为自然资源密集型产业，其三为劳动密集型生产活动。总体而言，研究结果表明，实际汇率对墨西哥制造业实际GDP的扩张增速具有显著影响。