Future scenarios of land-use-cover effects on pollination supply and demand in São Paulo State, Brazil

Abstract: Rapid land-use/land cover changes (LULCC) have led to habitat loss and fragmentation in the natural forest areas, which are mainly due to the intense and rapid expansion of urban areas and intense agricultural management. These processes are strongly threatening biodiversity maintenance and the ecosystem services provided by them. Among the ecosystem services under threat, pollination has been widely studied since this service is essential to promote food production and, therefore, human well-being. In a scenario of increasing LULCC it is crucial to understand the interplay between these changes, pollination demand by insect-dependent crops and pollinator availability to ensure these ecosystem services meet the increased demand for food production. In this study, we developed a conceptual model to disentangle the relationships between human-nature, especially LULCC, and its consequences, to the delivery of pollination service. We also presented a case study in the Brazilian São Paulo state, where we modeled the effects of predicted LULCC associated to agriculture expansion between the years 2012 and 2030 on pollinator demand by crops and pollinator supply, for fourteen economically important crops. Additionally, we systematized an expert-based Ecosystem Service matrix to estimate the influences of LULCC on the provision of pollination. Our results showed that by 2030, the demand for pollination will increase by 40% on average, while pollinator supply, estimated using suitability values for the different land-use/cover classes, will show, on average, a 3% decrease. Our results highlight the importance of considering the dialogue among stakeholders, governments, institutions, and scientists to find alternatives and strategies to promote pollinator-friendly practices and safeguard the provision of pollination services in a future under LULCC.

摘要：快速土地利用/土地覆被变化（Land Use/Land Cover Change, LULCC）已导致天然林区出现生境丧失与破碎化问题，其主因在于城市区域的高强度快速扩张与集约化农业经营。此类过程正严重威胁生物多样性维持以及天然林区所提供的生态系统服务功能。在受威胁的各类生态系统服务中，传粉服务因对粮食生产乃至人类福祉至关重要，已得到广泛研究。在LULCC持续加剧的情景下，为保障生态系统服务能够满足日益增长的粮食生产需求，明晰此类土地变化、虫媒作物传粉需求与传粉者可获得性之间的相互作用至关重要。本研究构建了一套概念模型，用以厘清人类-自然系统（尤其是LULCC）及其对传粉服务供给的影响之间的关联。同时，本研究以巴西圣保罗州为案例区，针对14种经济重要性作物，模拟了2012至2030年间与农业扩张相关的预测LULCC对作物传粉者需求及传粉者供给的影响。此外，本研究还构建了基于专家咨询的生态系统服务矩阵，用以评估LULCC对传粉服务供给的影响。研究结果显示，至2030年，传粉服务需求将平均提升40%；而基于不同土地利用/覆被类型适宜性值估算的传粉者供给量，平均将下降3%。本研究结果凸显了推动利益相关方、政府、科研机构与科研人员开展对话的重要性，以期在LULCC主导的未来场景中，找到推广传粉友好型实践、保障传粉服务供给的可行方案与策略。