Critical transitions and evolutionary hysteresis in movement: Habitat fragmentation can cause abrupt shifts in dispersal that are difficult to revert

Under habitat fragmentation, plant species’ survival hinges on the ability of individuals to disperse from one habitat patch to another. While there is evidence that severe habitat fragmentation leads to evolution of reduced dispersal ability and that such decreased mobility is generally detrimental for species’ survival, it is unknown whether species adapt via a gradual loss in dispersal ability or via a sudden shift from frequent to infrequent dispersal between patches (i.e., a critical transition). Using both a spatially explicit deterministic and individual-based stochastic model of hydrochorous seed dispersal, we show that a small increase in inter-patch distance can generate an abrupt shift in plant seed dispersal strategy from long to short distances. Most importantly, we found that a substantial increase in connectivity between habitat fragments is required to reverse this loss of long-distance dispersal, due to an evolutionary hysteresis effect. Our theory prompts for re-consideration of the eco-evolutionary consequences of habitat fragmentation as restoring habitat connectivity may require restoration of much higher connectivity levels than currently assumed.

Methods
We created two C++ models, one deterministic and one stochastic. Methods are described in detail in the corresponding paper and appendix.