When Marriage Ends, Politics Change: Divorce and the Decline of Conservatism

Divorce is no longer merely a private rupture in family life but a central marker of social transformation with far-reaching political consequences. By reshaping personal identities, altering economic security, and reconfiguring institutional ties, marital dissolution reverberates into the political sphere, influencing both individual preferences and collective electoral outcomes. This study examines divorce as a politically consequential life event in South Korea, where Confucian family norms retain influence and divorce continues to carry social stigma. Employing a multi-method design, the analysis links micro-level changes to macro-level dynamics. Panel fixed-effects models from the Korean Welfare Panel Study capture within-individual shifts in ideological self-placement before and after divorce. Cross-sectional data from the Korean General Social Survey evaluate whether divorced citizens are less likely to support conservative presidential candidates. District-level electoral and administrative data spanning five national elections between 2012 and 2022 assess whether higher divorce prevalence corresponds with reduced conservative vote shares. Across these analyses, a consistent pattern emerges: divorce is associated with a measurable decline in conservatism at both the individual and aggregate levels. The findings highlight divorce as a mechanism of progressive realignment, demonstrating how life-course disruptions recalibrate political attachments and underscoring family transformation as an overlooked driver of democratic change.

离婚已不再仅仅是家庭生活中的私人破裂事件，而是社会转型的核心表征，且具有影响深远的政治后果。通过重塑个人身份、调整经济保障水平、重构制度联结，婚姻解体的影响辐射至政治领域，既塑造个体的政治偏好，也影响集体的选举结局。本研究以韩国为分析场景，将离婚视为具有政治意涵的人生事件——该国仍受儒家家庭伦理规范影响，离婚行为依旧背负社会污名。本研究采用多方法研究设计，将微观层面的个体变化与宏观层面的社会动态相联结。借助韩国福利面板调查（Korean Welfare Panel Study）的面板固定效应模型，捕捉个体在离婚前后意识形态自我定位的变化；利用韩国综合社会调查（Korean General Social Survey）的横截面数据，评估离异公民支持保守派总统候选人的可能性是否更低；依托覆盖2012至2022年五次全国选举的选区层面选举与行政数据，检验离婚率较高的选区是否对应保守派得票率的下滑。综合上述分析可得出一致结论：无论在个体层面还是整体层面，离婚均与保守主义倾向的显著下降存在关联。本研究结果凸显离婚是政治倾向渐进式调整的重要机制，阐明了人生历程中的重大变故如何重塑个体的政治认同，并揭示了家庭转型长期被忽视的民主变革驱动作用。