Volkswagen - Financial data of EV leader

Summary Volkswagen has been aggressively shifting towards becoming an EV giant. Several reasons make Volkswagen well-positioned to gain a leadership position in the EV market. Its success has been evident in European markets with the ID.4 SUV. Valuation multiples are one of the lowest in the industry despite a strong outlook. Volkswagen ($VWAGY) has been undergoing a transformation from legacy automotive manufacturer to an EV giant. Its first EV SUV, ID.4, has been a strong success in Europe. The company continues to make bold moves in transforming itself and is well-positioned to succeed in the EV market due to multiple reasons discussed further in the article. For now though, here’s a look at the exterior: Personally, I invested in Volkswagen via Porsche SE ($POAHY) Porsche SE is a holding company, owned by the Porsche family. Porsche SE DOES NOT produce or own the actual sports cars. Porsche SE controls around 53% of Volkswagen, thus buying Porsche SE shares ($POAHY) gives you a discount of about 20% than buying actual Volkswagen shares. To learn more about stock investing, check out this website about the best stock research websites which covers more details about Volkswagen Business Summary Volkswagen is a leading multi-brand automobile giant. It has two divisions: Automotive and Financial Services. Under the Automotive division, the company develops and produces passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, motorcycles as well as software, engines, and other components for vehicles. Passenger car business accounts for nearly 70% of the group’s revenue. The financial services division includes dealer and customer financing, vehicle leasing, fleet management, mobility services, etc. Volkswagen has a broad portfolio of brands across volume, premium, sports, and truck categories. These include Volkswagen, Audi, Skoda, Bentley, Porsche, Seat, MAN, etc. Below is the revenue mix by geography: Structural shift in the automotive industry The accelerated rise in new technologies, digitization, automation, connectivity needs, and shift towards a greener economy have led to bringing a transformational change in the automotive industry. These have led to shifting the customer preference from internal combustion engine (“ICE”) vehicles to electric, autonomous, and, connected vehicles. While the industry still deals with multiple challenges like lack of EV charging infrastructure and relatively higher cost, these challenges are diminishing rapidly and are expected to be overcome soon which would result in a massive boom for electric vehicles. EV30@30 campaign launched by Clean energy ministerial targets EV sales to reach 30% of total vehicle sales by 2030. In absolute terms, the number of units is expected to be roughly 43 million, up from 3.1 million in 2020. As per Canalys, a global technology market analyst firm, the number of EVs sold is expected to reach 30 million in 2028 and represent 50% of all passenger cars by 2030. EV sales were up 39% in 2020 in terms of volume, while at the same time, total passenger car market declined 14% (Source). Volkswagen’s transformation underway While the overall EV industry growth trends based on above-mentioned estimates are appealing, Volkswagen expects even stronger growth in Europe. It expects EVs to account for more than 70% of total European vehicle sales by 2030. The company seems to go all-in with EV as it announced its plans to introduce the final ICE platform in 2026 with a lifecycle ending by 2040. It plans to have six new battery factories by 2030. The company is also the largest automotive investor of QuantumScape (QS), a leading developer of solid-state lithium-metal batteries. Citi (C) expects Volkswagen to be one of the structural winners as the automotive industry transitions into electric powertrains and gave a buy rating to it. Even crazier— Volkswagen’s research & development (R&D) budget is the 5th largest in the world; they spend more on research than Microsoft, Apple, and Oracle. The company aims to become the global leader by 2025. It plans to sell 1 million electric or hybrid vehicles this year and aims to launch 70 EV models and produce 25 million+ EVs by 2030. Volkswagen has developed a Modular Electric Drive Toolkit (“MEB”) platform which is a scalable modular car platform for EVs. It also plans to launch a different modular car platform (PPE platform) for its premium EV series (Porsche, Audi, etc.) in 2022. Cars already launched on the MEB platform include ID.3 & ID.4. The newly launched first fully electric SUV, ID.4, became the first SUV to top the European BEV rankings in April. Its predecessor, the hatchback ID.3, took the second spot in the European BEV market. This success provides a strong vote of confidence in the company’s competency in the EV market. The aggressive move towards a greener economy with fully electric vehicles would also help to repair the company’s tampered reputation after the diesel scandal in 2015. Well-positioned to compete & abundance of resources to support the transformation Volkswagen is the second-largest carmaker with solid experience in large-scale manufacturing which can be a difficult task for new market entrants like Fisker and Lordstown Motors. The company also enjoys economies of scale and synergies between brands as electric vehicle technology/platform is highly scalable, involving high operating leverage and heavy technological investments. Volkswagen is also expected to benefit from its dominant position in Europe where other EV players have limited penetration. Furthermore, Volkswagen has a huge potential in China, where just 180 out of 1000 people own a car, compared to 840 and 600 in the USA & Europe respectively. 1 in 5 vehicles sold in China is a volkswagen-owned brand, and the market contributes one third to Volkswagen's earnings. Besides that, the company has a solid liquidity position and spending capacity. It had €35.9Bn in Cash & Cash equivalents and €69.2Bn in gross liquidity (cash, cash equivalents, securities, loans, and time deposits) as of March 2021. The company also had solid cash flows to support technological investments. It reported €24.9Bn CFO and €13.61Bn FCF in FY2020. The company invested nearly €25Bn in R&D and Capex in FY2020. It aims to invest €46Bn in electric mobility and the hybridization of its fleet in the next five years. Based on Business Insider’s data, the company has been investing the most in EV programs among other top vehicle manufacturers. Valuation multiples are still incredibly cheap The company trades at very attractive valuation multiples with a forward P/S ratio of 0.37 times and a forward PE ratio of 5.5 times. The valuation is trading at a premium relative to its history due to the ongoing transformation. However, it is still trading at one of the lowest valuation multiples in the industry despite a strong outlook, thus making it highly undervalued. We expect the valuation multiples to rise in the future as the company nears the transition to an EV giant and regains growth momentum. However, investors can also earn substantial price returns even if the P/E ratio does not increase because a strong improvement in profitability is expected. The company has undertaken several cost-saving initiatives. It expects a 7% decline in material costs & realize a €2Bn reduction in fixed costs by 2023. It aims to achieve a 7-8% operating margin by 2025. Risks to the thesis Lack of EV charging infrastructure and unavailability of key raw materials: All EV market growth projections could be grounded into dust if the charging infrastructure is not sufficient to make the convenience equal to ICE vehicles for car owners. Additionally, the unavailability of raw materials used to manufacture EVs can lead to disrupting the production cycle or even increase the cost of production due to disruption in demand-supply curve of raw materials. Conclusion Volkswagen has been highly ambitious to transform into an EV giant and we believe it is well-positioned to become a leader in Europe and one of the top players in the rest of the world due to its strong experience in mass production, the abundance of resources, scalable platform, advantages of economies of scale, strong synergies between brands, and more. The valuation is still significantly cheap relative to other automotive players despite improved outlook. The stock offers immense upside potential for investors with a long-term investment horizon of 5+ years. The cheap valuation also reduces the downside risk for investors. Most of the research in this article is done using AlphaResearch - Edgar Company Search, the provide state-of-the-art search capabilities for SEC filings such as SEC filings, 10 k, 10q, form 8k, 13f filings, and sec form 4.

概述：大众汽车正加速转型为电动汽车（EV）巨头。多重因素令大众有望在电动汽车市场占据领军地位，其首款电动SUV ID.4在欧洲市场的成功便是明证。尽管前景向好，该公司的估值倍数仍处于行业低位。大众（$VWAGY）正从传统车企转型为电动汽车巨头，其首款电动SUV ID.4在欧洲大获成功。公司正持续推进大刀阔斧的转型变革，本文将详述其在电动汽车市场占据优势地位的多重缘由。先来看看其外观设计：笔者本人通过保时捷控股（Porsche SE，$POAHY）投资了大众汽车。保时捷控股是保时捷家族旗下的控股公司，不生产也不拥有实体跑车业务，其持有大众约53%的股权，因此买入保时捷控股股票（$POAHY）可比直接买入大众股票享受约20%的折扣。若想了解更多股票投资相关内容，可访问下述网站：该网站盘点了最佳股票研究平台，其中涵盖大众汽车的更多业务细节。

业务概述：大众是全球领先的多品牌汽车巨头，旗下分为两大业务板块：汽车制造与金融服务。汽车制造板块负责开发、生产乘用车、商用车、卡车、巴士、摩托车，以及车载软件、发动机及其他汽车零部件，其中乘用车业务营收占集团总营收的近70%。金融服务板块则涵盖经销商与客户融资、车辆租赁、车队管理、出行服务等。大众拥有覆盖大众市场、豪华车、跑车及商用车领域的广泛品牌矩阵，包括大众、奥迪、斯柯达、宾利、保时捷、西雅特、曼等。以下为按地区划分的营收结构：

汽车行业的结构性变革 新技术加速崛起、数字化、自动化、联网化需求提升，以及向绿色经济转型的大趋势，共同推动汽车行业发生颠覆性变革。消费者的偏好正从内燃机（ICE）汽车转向电动化、自动驾驶及联网化车辆。尽管当前行业仍面临电动汽车充电基础设施不足、车辆成本相对偏高的多重挑战，但这些问题正快速缓解并有望在不久后得到解决，届时电动汽车市场将迎来爆发式增长。

清洁能源部长级会议发起的EV30@30倡议提出，到2030年电动汽车销量需占全球汽车总销量的30%。按绝对销量计算，这一数字将从2020年的310万辆增长至约4300万辆。根据全球科技市场分析机构Canalys的预测，2028年全球电动汽车销量将达到3000万辆，到2030年将占所有乘用车销量的50%。2020年电动汽车销量同比增长39%，而同期全球乘用车总销量下滑14%（数据来源）。

大众汽车的转型进程 尽管基于上述预测的电动汽车行业整体增长趋势已颇具吸引力，但大众预计欧洲市场的增长将更为强劲：到2030年，电动汽车销量将占欧洲汽车总销量的70%以上。该公司已全面押注电动汽车赛道，宣布将于2026年推出最后一款内燃机平台，其生命周期将于2040年结束。大众计划到2030年建成6座全新电池工厂。同时，大众还是固态锂金属电池领先开发商QuantumScape（QS）的最大汽车行业投资方。花旗集团（C）认为，随着汽车行业向电动化动力总成转型，大众将成为结构性赢家之一，并给予其买入评级。更值得关注的是，大众的研发（R&D）预算位列全球第五，其研发投入超过微软、苹果及甲骨文。大众的目标是在2025年成为全球电动汽车领域的领军者。公司计划今年售出100万辆电动或混合动力汽车，到2030年将推出70款电动汽车车型，累计生产超过2500万辆电动汽车。大众已开发出模块化电动驱动平台（Modular Electric Drive Toolkit，MEB），这是一款可扩展的电动汽车模块化平台。此外，公司还计划于2022年推出针对豪华电动汽车系列（保时捷、奥迪等）的另一款模块化平台——PPE平台。目前已基于MEB平台推出的车型包括ID.3与ID.4。全新首发的纯电动SUV ID.4于4月登顶欧洲纯电动SUV销量榜，其前身掀背车型ID.3则位居欧洲纯电动车型销量榜第二位。此次成功极大地印证了大众在电动汽车市场的竞争力。向全电动绿色经济转型的激进举措，也有助于大众修复2015年柴油门丑闻后受损的企业声誉。

具备竞争优势与充足资源支撑转型 大众是全球第二大汽车制造商，拥有大规模制造的丰富经验——这对于菲斯克、Lordstown Motors等新晋市场参与者而言是难以复制的优势。由于电动汽车技术/平台具备高度可扩展性，且需要高运营杠杆与巨额技术投入，大众还能享受到各品牌间的规模经济与协同效应。大众在欧洲市场的主导地位也将使其受益，当前其他电动汽车玩家在欧洲的渗透率有限。此外，大众在中国市场拥有巨大潜力：中国每千人汽车保有量仅为180辆，而美国与欧洲分别为840辆与600辆。中国市场每售出5辆汽车中就有1辆属于大众旗下品牌，该市场贡献了大众三分之一的营收。除此之外，大众拥有稳健的流动性状况与支出能力：截至2021年3月，公司现金及现金等价物达359亿欧元，总流动性（现金、现金等价物、有价证券、贷款及定期存款）为692亿欧元。大众还拥有充足的现金流支撑技术研发投入：2020财年，公司经营活动现金流（CFO）达249亿欧元，自由现金流（FCF）为136.1亿欧元，当年研发与资本支出总计近250亿欧元。大众计划在未来五年内向电动化出行及车队混动化投入460亿欧元。根据Business Insider的数据，在一众顶级汽车制造商中，大众在电动汽车项目上的投入位居首位。

估值倍数仍极具吸引力 大众当前的估值倍数十分诱人：预期市销率为0.37倍，预期市盈率为5.5倍。由于正在进行的转型，该公司估值相较于其历史水平存在溢价，但尽管前景向好，其估值仍处于行业低位，因此具备显著的低估价值。我们预计，随着大众逐步完成向电动汽车巨头的转型并重拾增长动能，其估值倍数将在未来有所提升。不过即便市盈率未能上行，投资者仍有望获得可观的价格回报——因为市场预计大众的盈利能力将大幅改善。公司已推出多项成本削减举措，预计到2023年将实现材料成本下降7%，固定成本减少20亿欧元。大众的目标是到2025年将营业利润率提升至7%-8%。

投资逻辑面临的风险 电动汽车充电基础设施不足与关键原材料短缺：若充电基础设施无法达到与内燃机汽车相当的使用便利性，所有电动汽车市场增长预测都将化为泡影。此外，电动汽车制造所需原材料的供应短缺可能会扰乱生产周期，甚至因原材料供需失衡推高生产成本。

结论 大众汽车立志转型为电动汽车巨头的雄心十足，我们认为，依托其大规模生产的丰富经验、充足的资源储备、可扩展的平台优势、规模经济带来的益处、各品牌间的强大协同效应等多重优势，大众有望在欧洲市场成为领军者，并在全球其他市场跻身头部玩家之列。尽管前景有所改善，相较于其他汽车制造商，大众的估值仍显著偏低。对于拥有5年以上长期投资视野的投资者而言，该股具备巨大的上涨潜力。低廉的估值也降低了投资者的下行风险。本文的大部分研究数据均来自AlphaResearch - Edgar Company Search——该平台为SEC文件（包括10-K、10-Q、8-K表格、13F文件及SEC 4表格等）提供顶尖的搜索服务。