External validation of prognostic models for preeclampsia in a Dutch multicenter prospective cohort

Objective: To perform an external validation of all published prognostic models for first-trimester prediction of the risk of developing preeclampsia (PE). Methods: Women Results: 3,736 women were included; 87 (2.3%) developed PE. Calibration was poor due to overestimation. Discrimination of 9 models for LO-PE ranged from 0.58 to 0.71 and of 9 models for all PE from 0.55 to 0.75. Conclusion: Only a few easily applicable prognostic models for all PE showed discrimination above 0.70, which is considered an acceptable performance.研究目的：对已发表的所有用于早孕期预测子痫前期（preeclampsia, PE）发病风险的预后模型开展外部验证。研究方法：纳入妊娠女性作为研究对象。结果：共纳入3736名妊娠女性，其中87例（2.3%）发生子痫前期。因模型存在风险高估情况，校准性能欠佳。针对早发型子痫前期（LO-PE）的9个预后模型，其区分度介于0.58至0.71之间；针对全型子痫前期的9个预后模型，区分度则介于0.55至0.75之间。结论：仅少数易于临床应用的全型子痫前期预后模型，其区分度高于0.70，该性能被认为处于可接受水平。