NARCliM1.5 climate projections

__What is NARCliM?__\r\n\r\nThe New South Wales and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project develops high-resolution regional climate projections that cover NSW and South-eastern Australia at a higher resolution and the Australasian continent and beyond at another resolution (named the NARCliM and CORDEX domains, respectively).\r\nComputer modelled climate projections are the best information we have available on our future climate. NARCliM has been designed to help government, industry and community in NSW and Australia plan for our future with robust regional and local scale data.\r\nThe NARCliM project uses currently available global climate models (GCM) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) used in the IPCC reports and applies regional dynamical downscaling using the latest Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). NARCliM generates critical climate indices for a broad range of applications and climate change adaptation and risk analysis.\r\n\r\n__NARCliM1.5__\r\n\r\nNARCliM1.5 climate projections have now been superseded by NARCliM2.0. Please see the NARCliM2.0 information.\r\nAn enhanced set of climate projections (NARCliM1.5) were released in 2020. NARCliM1.5 contains simulations from three CMIP5 GCMs and two RCMs and two GHG scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The simulated time period is continuous from 1951 to 2100. NARCliM1.5 has the same grid resolution as NARCliM1.0 – a 10 km grid for South-eastern Australia (NARCliM domain) nested within a 50 km grid for Australasia (CORDEX domain), and is useful for analysis of climate extremes, impact thresholds and stress testing.\r\n\r\nThe new projections offer enhancements to NARCliM1.0 (2014). These include:\r\n* Global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5)\r\n* Two future climate scenarios called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) from CMIP5: RCP4.5 (some mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions); and RCP8.5 (very limited mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions)\r\n* A continuous time period of 1951 to 2100\r\n* Daily, monthly and seasonal timesteps\r\n* Post-processed data of fifteen core variables and bias-corrected data for three variables and data. \r\n* Additionally, users can access two two ERA-Interim reanalysis forced simulations were run for 1979 to 2013.\r\n\r\nNARCliM1.5 has been designed as a supplement to NARCliM1.0 in order to provide broader range of future climate variability. \r\nUsers are required to review and agree to the Terms and Conditions of use. Further, users are strongly advised that NARCliM1.5 is not a replacement for NARCliM1.0, rather, NARCliM1.5 complements NARCliM1.0. Therefore, both sets of models should be used to capture the range of future climate variability for South-eastern Australia. Additional information about the data is available on the AdaptNSW website\r\n\r\n__Model output__\r\n\r\nNARCliM1.5 climate projections have now been superseded by NARCliM2.0. For more information about NARCliM1.5 climate projections, please contact the NARCliM Mailbox, [e-mail]. \r\n\r\n__Related links__\r\n\r\nDiscover how climate change will affect your region at [AdaptNSW](https://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/)\r\nNARCliM2.0 data available on the NSW Climate Data Portal\r\nhttps://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/climate-data-portal\r\n

# 什么是NARCliM？

新南威尔士州与澳大利亚区域气候建模（New South Wales and Australian Regional Climate Modelling，简称NARCliM）项目旨在开发高分辨率区域气候预测数据：覆盖新南威尔士州及澳大利亚东南部的数据集采用更高分辨率，而覆盖澳大拉西亚大陆及更广区域的数据集则采用另一套分辨率，二者分别对应NARCliM域与CORDEX域。

计算机模拟的气候预测是当前我们可获取的关于未来气候的最优信息。NARCliM项目旨在助力新南威尔士州及澳大利亚的政府、行业与社区，通过可靠的区域及局地尺度数据，为未来规划提供支撑。

本项目采用当前已公开的、用于政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change，简称IPCC）报告的最新耦合模式比较计划（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project，简称CMIP）所产出的全球气候模型（Global Climate Model，简称GCM）数据与温室气体（Greenhouse Gas，简称GHG）排放情景，并借助最新版天气研究与预报模型（Weather Research and Forecasting Model，简称WRF）开展区域动力降尺度处理。NARCliM可生成适用于多种应用场景、气候变化适应及风险分析的关键气候指数。

# NARCliM1.5

NARCliM1.5气候预测数据现已被NARCliM2.0取代，详情请参阅NARCliM2.0相关信息。

升级版气候预测数据集NARCliM1.5于2020年发布。该数据集包含3个CMIP5全球气候模型、2个区域气候模型（Regional Climate Model，简称RCM）以及2种温室气体排放情景（典型浓度路径RCP4.5与RCP8.5）的模拟结果。模拟时段为1951年至2100年的连续序列。NARCliM1.5的网格分辨率与NARCliM1.0一致：澳大利亚东南部区域（NARCliM域）采用10公里网格，嵌套于澳大拉西亚区域（CORDEX域）的50公里网格之上，该数据集适用于气候极端事件、影响阈值及压力测试相关分析。

相较于2014年发布的NARCliM1.0，新版预测数据具备以下改进：
* 采用耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）的全球气候模型（GCMs）
* 采用CMIP5框架下的2种未来气候情景——典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathway，简称RCP）4.5（温室气体排放得到一定管控）与RCP8.5（温室气体排放管控力度极有限）
* 覆盖1951年至2100年的连续模拟时段
* 提供日、月、季三种时间分辨率的数据
* 针对15个核心变量完成后处理，对3个变量进行偏差校正，并附带原始数据
* 此外，用户还可获取1979年至2013年的两套ERA-Interim再分析数据驱动的模拟结果

NARCliM1.5被设计为NARCliM1.0的补充数据集，以提供更广泛的未来气候变异性覆盖范围。

用户需审阅并同意使用条款与条件。此外，强烈建议用户注意：NARCliM1.5并非NARCliM1.0的替代方案，而是对其的补充。因此，应同时使用这两套模型数据，以全面覆盖澳大利亚东南部的未来气候变异性范围。更多数据相关信息可在AdaptNSW官网查询。

# 模型输出

NARCliM1.5气候预测数据现已被NARCliM2.0取代。如需了解NARCliM1.5气候预测数据的更多详情，请联系NARCliM邮箱：[e-mail]。

# 相关链接

了解气候变化如何影响你的所在区域，请访问[AdaptNSW](https://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/)
NARCliM2.0数据可在新南威尔士州气候数据门户获取：
https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/climate-data-portal