NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Greater Yellowstone Ecoregion 1,250 Year Maximum Temperature Reconstruction

Projected warming of global surface air temperatures will further exacerbate droughts, wildfires, and other agents of ecosystem stress. We use latewood blue intensity from high-elevation Picea engelmannii to reconstruct late-summer maximum air temperature for the Greater Yellowstone Ecoregion (GYE) spanning 770-2019 CE. Using a robust regression model (r2=0.60), the 1,250-year reconstruction reveals 2016 as the single-warmest year and the warming trend since ca. 2000 as the most intense. The Medieval Climate Anomaly contained the highest-ranking warm event (1050-1070 CE) and was characterized by substantial multi-decadal variability rather than a period of prolonged, homogeneous warming. We document regional expression of past warm and cool events, such as an anomalously warm period spanning the 15th-16th centuries, and the Maunder and Dalton minima of the Little Ice Age. Summer temperature variability across the GYE shows multi-centennial agreement with trends in solar irradiance, volcanic activity, snowpack, and other regional-to-hemispheric temperature records.

全球地表气温的预估升温将进一步加剧干旱、野火及其他生态系统胁迫因子的影响。本研究采用高海拔恩氏云杉（Picea engelmannii）的晚材蓝色强度数据，重建了公元770年至2019年大黄石生态区（Greater Yellowstone Ecoregion，GYE）的夏末最高气温序列。基于决定系数r²=0.60的稳健回归模型，这一长达1250年的重建序列显示，2016年为该区域最暖年份，且约公元2000年以来的升温趋势为整个序列中最为显著的阶段。中世纪暖期（Medieval Climate Anomaly）出现了该序列中强度最高的暖事件（公元1050-1070年），其特征为显著的年代际变率，而非持续均匀的升温过程。本研究还记录了区域尺度上的历史冷暖事件，例如公元15至16世纪的异常暖期，以及小冰期（Little Ice Age）期间的蒙德极小期与道尔顿极小期。大黄石生态区的夏季气温变化与太阳辐射、火山活动、积雪覆盖以及其他区域至半球尺度的气温记录在百年尺度上呈现一致的变化趋势。