Human Capital-weighted population estimates for 185 countries from 1970 to 2100

We provide a novel dataset of human capital-weighted population size (HCWP) for 185 countries from 1970 to 2100. HCWP summarizes a population's productive capacity and human capital heterogeneity in a single metric, enabling comparisons across countries and over time. The weights are derived from Mincerian earnings functions applied to multi-country census data on educational attainment. The model used to compute the returns to schooling accounts for the diminishing positive relative relationship between education and wages as the overall education of populations rises. The population weights are adjusted by a skills assessment factor representing differences in education quality across countries and years. HCWP is calculated by applying these adjusted human capital weights to population estimates and projections disaggregated by age, sex and education, spanning the period 1970-2020 and 2020-2100 for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. Validation analyses demonstrate the utility of the new HCWP data in explaining national income trends. As a more comprehensive population measure than basic size and age-sex indicators, HCWP enhances the power of statistical models aimed at the assessment of socioeconomic change impacts and forecasting.本研究构建了一套覆盖185个国家、时间跨度为1970年至2100年的人力资本加权人口规模（human capital-weighted population size, HCWP）全新数据集。HCWP通过单一指标整合了人口的生产能力与人力资本异质性，支持跨国与跨时间的比较分析。该数据集的权重基于明瑟收入函数（Mincerian earnings functions）推导，其测算依托多国人口普查的教育成就数据。用于计算教育回报率的模型纳入了人口整体受教育水平提升时，教育与工资间的正向相对关系逐步递减的特征。人口权重需通过技能评估因子进行调整，该因子用于刻画不同国家及年份间的教育质量差异。HCWP的计算方式为：将经上述调整后的人力资本权重，应用于按年龄、性别与教育水平拆分的人口估算与预测数据，数据覆盖1970-2020年及2020-2100年两个时段，涵盖5种共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs）情景。验证分析结果表明，这套全新的HCWP数据可有效解释国民收入的变化趋势。相较于基础人口规模与年龄-性别结构指标，HCWP是更为全面的人口测度方式，能够提升用于评估社会经济变化影响及开展预测的统计模型的拟合能力与预测精度。