Replication Package for: "Institutional Thresholds and the Activation of Human Capital: A Theory of Regime-Contingent Growth in Developing Economies"

This replication package contains all data, code, and documentation required to reproduce the empirical results in Botsyoe (2025), "Institutional Thresholds and the Activation of Human Capital: A Theory of Regime-Contingent Growth in Developing Economies." The paper develops the Institutionally-Mediated Threshold Activation (IMTA) framework — an overlapping-generations model in which institutional quality governs the minimum public education expenditure required to activate the Lucas–Romer human capital growth mechanism — and validates four theoretical propositions using Hansen's (1999) fixed-effects panel threshold regression (PTR) across 115 developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (47), Asia (38), and Latin America (30) over 1970–2023. Contents: Stata do-files (00–07), master panel dataset and three regional subsamples (WDI/WGI/UNESCO sources), variable construction notes, and a README with full replication instructions. Key results: Full-sample thresholds of 3.14% (SSA), 4.03% (Asia), and 6.96% (Latin America) of GDP confirm the cross-regional ordering predicted by the IMTA framework. Stability-stratified sub-group estimates with non-overlapping confidence intervals confirm institutional compression of the activation threshold (∂γ*(ι)/∂ι < 0). Causal identification uses FE–IV (Cragg–Donald F = 950.2 for Latin America, 66.9 for Asia) and System GMM with collapsed instruments. Software: Stata 16 or later. Required packages: xthreg, xtabond2, xtivreg2. Data sources: World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI), Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS).本复现包包含复现Botsyoe（2025）论文《制度门槛与人力资本激活：发展中经济体的政权依附性增长理论》（英文原题：Institutional Thresholds and the Activation of Human Capital: A Theory of Regime-Contingent Growth in Developing Economies）实证结果所需的全部数据、代码与文档。 该论文构建了制度中介门槛激活（Institutionally-Mediated Threshold Activation, IMTA）框架——这是一类世代交叠模型，其中制度质量决定了激活卢卡斯-罗默人力资本增长机制所需的最低公共教育支出；并采用汉森（1999）提出的固定效应面板门槛回归（Panel Threshold Regression, PTR），对1970—2023年间撒哈拉以南非洲（47国）、亚洲（38国）与拉丁美洲（30国）共115个发展中经济体的面板数据进行实证分析，验证了四项理论命题。 本复现包包含以下内容：Stata do文件（编号00–07）、主面板数据集与三个区域子样本（数据来源于世界发展指标、全球治理指标与联合国教科文组织）、变量构建说明，以及包含完整复现指南的自述文件（README）。 关键研究结果显示：全样本门槛值分别为GDP的3.14%（撒哈拉以南非洲）、4.03%（亚洲）与6.96%（拉丁美洲），验证了IMTA框架所预测的跨区域排序；置信区间无重叠的稳健分层子样本估计，证实了激活门槛的制度压缩效应（∂γ*(ι)/∂ι < 0）；因果识别环节采用了固定效应工具变量法（FE-IV，拉丁美洲的Cragg-Donald F值为950.2，亚洲为66.9）以及采用合并工具变量的系统广义矩估计（System GMM）。 软件要求：需使用Stata 16及以上版本，所需依赖包包括xthreg、xtabond2与xtivreg2。 数据来源：世界银行世界发展指标（World Development Indicators, WDI）、全球治理指标（Worldwide Governance Indicators, WGI）以及联合国教科文组织统计研究所（UNESCO Institute for Statistics, UIS）。