Demand and income distribution: an analysis of the Brazilian economic growth between 1993-2013

Abstract This work aims to empirically investigate Brazilian economic growth from 1993 through 2013. It is based on Naastepad's model, which determines whether the demand-led growth is wage-led or profit-led. Thus, in order to determine the demand regime of the period, we estimated the equations for investment, exports and aggregate propensity to save. Estimating the equations allowed us to calculate the multiplier effect and investment and export elasticity effect. The demand regime in the period was wage-led, mostly due to low participation of investments and exportations in the national income. All equations were estimated by Ordinary Least Squares and showed robust standard deviation of parameters. The statistical tests, carried out after the estimation, suggest an unbiased and consistent model.

摘要 本研究旨在对1993年至2013年的巴西经济增长开展实证考察。本研究以Naastepad模型为基础，该模型可用于判定需求拉动型增长属于工资拉动型还是利润拉动型。为此，为明确该时期的需求体制，我们对投资、出口及总储蓄倾向的方程进行了估计。通过对方程的估计，我们得以计算乘数效应以及投资与出口的弹性效应。该时期的需求体制为工资拉动型，这主要源于投资与出口在国民收入中的占比较低。所有方程均通过普通最小二乘法（Ordinary Least Squares）进行估计，且参数标准差表现稳健。估计后开展的统计检验结果表明，该模型具备无偏性与一致性。