Data and Code for: The Life-Cycle Implications of Temporary Employment Contracts

Employment protections often create two-tiered labor markets with substantial differences in job security. I estimate the effects of removing these protections using a quantitative life-cycle model, where younger workers are more likely to select into precarious jobs. Workers accumulate human capital when employed and face the possibility of human capital losses in unemployment. Because workers with greater job security experience fewer unemployment spells, they tend to accumulate more human capital over their careers. I show that reducing employment protections boosts younger workers’ job-finding rates but lowers human capital, GDP, and employment. The impacts of these policies differ significantly by age.

就业保护政策往往会催生双层劳动力市场，导致不同群体的就业保障水平存在显著差异。本文采用量化生命周期模型，评估取消此类就业保护政策所产生的影响。该模型设定年轻工人更倾向于从事不稳定就业岗位。工人在就业期间会积累人力资本，而在失业阶段则可能面临人力资本损耗。由于就业保障水平更高的工人失业频次更少，其在职业生涯中积累的人力资本往往更多。本文研究表明，放松就业保护政策会提升年轻工人的就业获取率，但会降低人力资本水平、国内生产总值(GDP)以及整体就业规模。此类政策的影响会随年龄呈现显著差异。