Net-zero emissions aviation

Dataset for Net-zero emissions aviation paper. <strong>Abstract:</strong> International climate goals imply reaching net-zero global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by roughly mid-century (and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century). Among the most difficult emissions to avoid will be those from aviation given the industry’s need for energy-dense liquid fuels that lack commercially competitive substitutes, and the difficult-to-abate non-CO₂ radiative forcing. Here, we systematically assess pathways to net-zero emissions aviation, exploring the potential contribution of different approaches. We find that ambitious reductions in demand for air transport and improvements in the energy efficiency of aircraft might avoid up to 61% (2.8 GtCO₂ equivalent) and 27% (1.2 GtCO_2-eq), respectively, of projected business-as-usual aviation emissions in 2050. However, further reductions will depend on replacing fossil jet fuel with large quantities of net-zero emissions biofuels or synthetic fuels (i.e. 2.5-19.8 EJ of sustainable aviation fuels)—which may be substantially more expensive. Moreover, up to 3.4 GtCO_2-eq may need to be removed from the atmosphere to compensate for non-CO₂ forcing for the sector to achieve net-zero GHG. Our results may inform investments and priorities for innovation by highlighting plausible pathways to net-zero emissions aviation, including the relative potential and trade-offs of changes in behavior, technology, and energy sources.

本数据集为净零排放航空研究论文配套数据集。**摘要：** 国际气候目标要求在本世纪中叶左右实现全球二氧化碳（CO₂）净零排放，并于本世纪末实现温室气体（Greenhouse Gas, GHG）净零排放。航空业因需依赖高能量密度液态燃料且缺乏具备商业竞争力的替代燃料，加之难以减排的非二氧化碳辐射强迫（Radiative Forcing），其排放是最难实现削减的排放领域之一。本研究系统评估了航空业实现净零排放的可行路径，探讨了各类减排手段的潜在贡献。研究发现，大幅降低航空运输需求与提升航空器能源效率，或可分别避免2050年基准情景（Business-as-Usual, BAU）下预测航空排放量的61%（约2.8十亿吨二氧化碳当量）与27%（约1.2十亿吨二氧化碳当量，GtCO₂-eq）。然而，进一步减排需依赖以大量净零排放生物燃料或合成燃料替代化石喷气燃料——即需供应2.5至19.8艾焦（Exajoule, EJ）的可持续航空燃料（Sustainable Aviation Fuels, SAF），此类燃料的成本或大幅高于传统化石燃料。此外，若要实现航空业温室气体净零排放，或需从大气中移除至多3.4十亿吨二氧化碳当量的温室气体，以抵消该行业的非二氧化碳辐射强迫。本研究通过梳理航空业实现净零排放的可行路径，包括行为变革、技术升级与能源转型的相对潜力与权衡关系，可为相关创新投资与优先级制定提供科学参考。